This Paper analyses the results of the trading data in 2025 for the European traded gas hubs, to give a picture of how they have reacted to the structural changes following the cessation of Russian pipeline gas flows in early 2025.
In 2025 trading continued to pick up, set alongside a modest overall increase in physical volumes. When comparing the 2024/25 year-on-year difference, Europe as a whole had a 16% rise in traded volumes, whilst physical demand rose by 8%. The Dutch TTF hub had by far the largest traded volumes, including in all products across the whole curve and, with a year-on-year increase of 14% in 2025, TTF volumes were four and a half times greater than all of the other 8 main hubs reviewed, and over 9 times greater than the next most traded hub, the British NBP; 20 times greater than the German THE hub, in Europe’s largest gas consuming country; and nearly 52 times greater than the Italian PSV. Only the Dutch TTF and the British NBP recorded exchange financial options trading and volumes were 8% higher than in 2024 at NBP, but eased back 24% at TTF; nevertheless, the TTF options volumes alone accounted for 86% the total trades at all of the Continental European hubs put together.
As well as reviewing the longer term trends over a fifteen year period, this paper also reviewed the correlation of the main European hub prices and their convergence. From the summer of 2023 through to the end of 2024, all the main hubs were once again both well correlated and closely convergent, as well as the majority of the ‘smaller’ hubs too. This continued into 2025, although in the first quarter, the convergence appeared to start diminishing, resulting from the cessation of Russian pipeline gas flows from east to west, necessitating supplies to come from primarily northwest Europe but also from Poland. The effects of that structural change became clear from April 2025 when there appeared a significant, and so far lasting, change in the convergence; however, the correlation has remained very tight.
A price ‘ladder’ started to show and for the rest of the year settled into a pattern whereby the French TRF, Belgian ZTP and Dutch TTF (and the British NBP) were consistently the cheapest hubs, then the German THE a little more expensive, followed by in turn the countries progressing from west to east: the Czech VOB, Austrian VTP, and Slovak SVOB. There are no reported Hungarian Month Ahead prices, but in the Day Ahead contract, the Hungarian MGP is the most expensive alongside SVOB. In H1-2026, the correlation was maintained, even at and immediately after the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict; as the situation stabilised the correlation was maintained but the hubs started to diverge once more.
This paper shows that the Dutch TTF remains the leading, most traded, benchmark hub, with all other European hubs following its price signals; however, the market has had to find a way to accommodate the effects of the new flows of gas across the Continent, and that has been done by quickly implementing a price ladder, representative of the additional costs involved in transporting gas to those countries furthest away from the source. This confirms the author’s analysis and conclusion that the TTF contract has now sealed its place as a global gas benchmark.
Considering all the data and analysis presented in this paper, the overall conclusion is that the traded volumes increased in all but four European countries, despite the cessation of Russian pipeline supplies to Europe from the beginning of 2025, and that the correlation has stayed very strong, but that a ‘ladder’ of prices has developed to factor in the resultant structural changes linked to the changes in gas flows. The final conclusion must be that the European traded gas markets have remained resilient in the face of adversity.