MARKET MOVEMENTS:
–Brent crude oil is down 3.2% to $97.51 a barrel.
–European benchmark gas is up 2.8% at 63.68 euros a megawatt-hour.
–Copper futures are up 0.5% at 13,636.50 a metric ton.
–Gold futures are up 0.2% to $4,059.60 a troy ounce.
TOP STORY:
Why Oil Prices Are Falling After Blowing Past $100 Yesterday
Brent crude futures are down nearly 3% this morning to trade solidly below $100, even after President Trump told Axios yesterday that he is considering a massive attack against Iran that would be “bigger than ever before.”
So why isn’t oil surging?
For one, headlines surrounding the Middle East have been largely quiet over the last 12 hours, with no fresh catalysts to send oil higher again.
OTHER STORIES:
CATL Profit Climbs on Surging Demand for Energy-Storage Batteries
Contemporary Amperex Technology, the world’s largest battery maker, reported sharply higher profit in the first half as booming demand for energy-storage systems and resilient electric-vehicle battery sales offset weakening appetite for EVs in China.
Net profit surged 42% from a year earlier to 43.28 billion yuan, equivalent to $6.39 billion, the company said Friday. Revenue increased 55% to 276.92 billion yuan.
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Antofagasta’s Los Pelambres Copper Mine Resumes Operations After Weather Disruption
Chilean copper miner Antofagasta said production at its Los Pelambres mine north of Santiago has resumed after heavy rain and power outages led to a shutdown.
The London-listed miner kept its full-year production guidance unchanged Friday despite the temporary pause to production. It said there had been no material impact to equipment or key infrastructure.
MARKET TALKS:
Palm Oil Ended Higher on Solid Demand, Tight Supply — Market Talk
1021 GMT – Palm oil ended higher. Prices are likely to remain supported in the near term, according to Chaos Ternary Futures analysts in a research note. Indonesia has officially launched its B50 biodiesel program, which will boost crude palm oil consumption, they point out. Data from Malaysia for July shows a month-on-month drop in production, they note. Despite recent retreats, middle east tension still keeps crude oil pries at elevated levels, which is likely to provide a support for crude palm oil’s prices. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery rises 13 ringgit to 4,723 ringgit a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
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Oil-Price Jump After Renewed Mideast Fighting Likely Temporary — Market Talk
0904 GMT – The latest jump in oil prices following an escalating conflict in the Middle East is likely to be short-lived, Julius Baer’s Norbert Rücker says in a note. Despite fresh attacks on tankers in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, the renewed fighting appears to reflect efforts by the parties to strengthen their bargaining positions ahead of another round of negotiations. “None of the involved conflict parties have an interest in the situation getting out of hand,” Rücker says, adding that conditions underpinning the early summer truce are unchanged. With the pledged government oil releases only partially done and global oil overall less depleted than initially expected, the market still has a buffer if supply disruptions persist, Julius Baer says. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
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Oil-Price Jump After Renewed Mideast Fighting Likely Temporary — Market Talk
0904 GMT – The latest jump in oil prices following an escalating conflict in the Middle East is likely to be short-lived, Julius Baer’s Norbert Rücker says in a note. Despite fresh attacks on tankers in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, the renewed fighting appears to reflect efforts by the parties to strengthen their bargaining positions ahead of another round of negotiations. “None of the involved conflict parties have an interest in the situation getting out of hand,” Rücker says, adding that conditions underpinning the early summer truce are unchanged. With the pledged government oil releases only partially done and global oil overall less depleted than initially expected, the market still has a buffer if supply disruptions persist, Julius Baer says. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
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Repsol Is Capturing Extremely High Refining Margins — Market Talk
0847 GMT – Spanish energy major Repsol’s second-quarter results exceed elevated expectations, UBS analyst Henri Patricot writes. The company is fully capturing extremely high refining margins and the third quarter could be even better, he adds. Margins are at record levels and the company has no planned maintenance, enabling it to fully benefit, he says. The bank increases the stock’s target price to 26 euros from 23 euros and increases its 2026 buyback forecast to 1.1 billion euros from 1 billion euros. Shares fall 2.5% to 26.01 euros.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
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Gold Below $4,100 As Fed Tightening Prospects Weigh on Outlook — Market Talk
0738 GMT – Gold prices are back below $4,100 as higher real yields and rate-hike bets weigh on the non-yielding metal’s appeal. In early trading, New York futures are up 0.05% to $4,052.40 a troy ounce, leaving prices on track for a modest weekly gain after a rebound earlier this week. The market’s main focus remains on monetary policy, as higher interest rates reduce bullion’s appeal. “The benign June price data brought the Fed some more time to gauge how inflation evolves over the coming months,” says Thomas Ryan from Capital Economics. “If inflation pressures remain as persistent as we expect, the Fed will begin tightening policy with a 25-basis-point hike in September, a move now fully priced into markets following the rebound in WTI to more than $90 a barrel.” (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
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China Likely Able to Keep Crude Imports Low for Longer — Market Talk
0734 GMT – China is likely able to draw down its crude inventories and sustain historically low import levels for several more months, possibly into 2027, Capital Economics says in a note. Economist Hamad Hussain says the sharp decline in China’s crude imports has been a key factor capping global oil prices. He argues the drop reflects the end of China’s streak of oil stockpiling, rather than weaker end-user demand from long-term trends such as rising EV adoption. However, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for much longer, oil markets are still likely to reach a tipping point in the coming months, potentially pushing crude prices to $120 a barrel or higher. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
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Mideast Tension Re-Escalating Risks Broader Supply-Chain Crisis — Market Talk
0727 GMT – The recent re-escalation of the Middle East conflict could transform the energy supply disruption from a crude-routing problem to a broader supply-chain crisis, ANZ commodity strategists say in a research note. The oil market has avoided a more disorderly price response so far because of several buffers, including China’s sharp reduction in crude imports, they say. However, the latest strikes raise concerns about whether these buffers can effectively keep the world supplied with oil, as a disruption to the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb shipping would undermine one of the market’s most important workarounds, they note. ANZ maintains its end-Q3 2026 Brent crude forecast of $92 per barrel, but warns if regional supply disruptions intensify, Brent could rise towards $120 a barrel. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
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Brent Crude Headed for 12% Weekly Gain on Red Sea Shipping Risks — Market Talk
0702 GMT – Brent crude edges lower in early trading after settling above $100 a barrel, though prices remained on track for weekly gains of more than 12% as threats to Red Sea shipping stoked fears of further supply disruptions. The global oil benchmark falls 1.3% to $99.39 a barrel, while WTI futures slip 1.4% to $90.89 a barrel. “The key question is at what price level pressure begins to build on the Trump administration to return to the negotiating table,” analysts at ING say. Based on previous price spikes during the early stages of the conflict, they say pressure to de-escalate would rise significantly if Brent approaches $120 a barrel. For Iran, the more pressing issue is not the level of oil prices, but how long the country can withstand a sharp drop in oil revenue under the U.S. blockade. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
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Copper Gains on Signs of Supply Tightness, Disruption — Market Talk
0155 GMT – Copper gains in the early Asian session. Signs of supply tightness in China could support prices, say ANZ Research analysts in a note. Concerns about disruption to copper supply are also mounting, as severe storms in Chile are threatening to disrupt copper production, they add. The three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange is up 0.4% at $13,645.00 a metric ton.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)
Write to Barcelona Editors at barcelonaeditors@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 24, 2026 08:39 ET (12:39 GMT)
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