Prior was -1.8Output index +5.2 vs +15.3 priorNew orders -2.6 vs +5.8 priorEmployment -3.4 vs +8.8 priorCompany outlook -1.0 vs +3.3
This is a lower tier indicator but there is growing worry about the low prices for oil in Texas and falling oil drilling activity. Texas is also a green energy powerhouse and incentives for that are dwindling.
Comments in the survey:
Computer and electronic product manufacturing
I may have to close the company. Orders have stopped coming in, and we do not know why.
Fabricated metal product manufacturing
Orders have been put on hold, and we are not receiving any new
[purchase orders] since Aug. 15 on open RFQ’s [requests for quotation].
Food manufacturing
Political and interest rate instability are killing us. We are
fortunate that our raw ingredients are stable by price and supply chain
availability. The non-profit food relief “business” is a train wreck.We are still concerned over employment and labor issues.
Furniture and related product manufacturing
We are seeing demand decline.
Machinery manufacturing
We see the oil industry slowing and are more hesitant to invest
in their business. We believe that the uncertainty of government
decisions is affecting their business decisions, which in turn will
affect our business.We should have our best month of the year in September. Orders are strong, plus we are working on some good new projects.Relief! Rates are easing, finally. Tariffs are of little
consequence. Labor is steady. We might even turn a profit by year-end!
Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing
After careful evaluation of prevailing economic conditions,
including the current level of interest rates and unpredictability of
tariffs, our company continues to hold and not proceed upon our
expansion plans. The cost of financing at existing rates has materially
impacted the feasibility of these projects, and we believe it is
prudent to delay implementation until interest rates are reduced to
more sustainable and affordable levels.. We remain committed to our
operations in Texas and to continued long-term growth. However, further
expansion (building addition, inventory expansion, capital equipment
acquisition) will be contingent upon a more favorable borrowing
environment that supports capital investment and job creation.The interest rates for mortgages are keeping potential new
homeowners out of the market. Homebuilders do not want to build up
excess inventory, and therefore our business of producing materials for
homebuilders has dropped off significantly. In addition, roughly 30
percent of buyers are falling out of the homebuying process due to
inability to qualify for mortgages (credit card debt).
Paper manufacturing
We are still neutral on our current status, but incoming orders
are trending down when this time of year they should be up. A few
tariff surcharges are starting to show up, but not enough to try to pass
along. Competition in the packaging industry has prices declining
somewhat.
Printing and related support activities
We need interest rates to fall more than a quarter percentage point.Incoming orders have definitely slowed way down, and all we can
attribute it to is the crazy tariff-induced environment we are living
in. Instead of Washington, D.C. policies increasing business and making
it better, they seem to be adding way too much uncertainty and making
things worse. We have continued to be busy because of robust incoming
orders earlier in the summer. If things don’t change quickly, we may
soon be looking at reducing hours and possibly cutting back on the
number of employees, which will be a shame given how hard it is to get
good workers up to speed with your manufacturing processes.
Transportation equipment manufacturing
The trucking industry has now reduced its production forecast
for 2026 to essentially be flat with 2025. This remains at a depressed
level versus industry averages.