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Hello and welcome to the working week.
The Nobel committee will on Friday announce this year’s recipient, or recipients, of its prestigious peace prize in a ceremony in Oslo. The name on the list is almost definitely not going to be Donald Trump and yet we begin with anticipation of a ceasefire in Gaza, brokered by the US president.
Trump has warned Hamas to “move quickly” as US envoy Steve Witkoff and Arab negotiators head to Cairo for crunch talks with Israel and Hamas on Monday in a bid to iron out details of the ceasefire plan and secure the release of Israeli hostages.
It will be two years on Tuesday since the attacks by Hamas on Israel from Gaza that sparked this drawn-out and tense conflict, reducing large swaths of the Palestinian territory to rubble, as this FT Big Read illustrates.
Elsewhere, the UK reaches the end of its political conference season with this week’s main event: the opposition Conservatives gathering in Manchester. Leader Kemi Badenoch and her shadow cabinet team are expected to at least announce some policy ideas. Badenoch will deliver her keynote speech on Wednesday. The big question hanging over the event is whether the Tories are even relevant anymore — an issue the FT Big Read has covered. If you prefer a more rosy forecast for the Tories, read Janan Ganesh.
The economics data flow this week will be more of a drip, drip, drip, thanks in part to significant national holidays — not least Golden Week in China — but mainly because of the US federal shutdown, which has already led to the postponement of several key US data publications. Shutdown (unless it is resolved) will remain the key theme for markets this week as a lot more official economic data goes unpublished.
We are however expecting minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee rate-setting meeting, which could provide some guidance on the further direction of travel for rates (check out the FT interest rate tracker to compare countries), plus the European Central Bank’s account of its September rate decision. In addition we will have consumer sentiment reports for the US, inflation data in Europe and wages figures in Japan, as well as comparative economic health indications for the G7 and large economies via the latest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data reports.
There is a bit more to get your teeth into in the corporate news, despite this being the tail-end of the current results season. One to note is the quarterly update from Shell on Tuesday, not that these trading statements are usually interesting but this one could provide an indication of how badly the oil and gas sector is being hit by low crude prices.
Another market announcement to watch is PepsiCo, reporting third-quarter earnings on Thursday, which is noteworthy because of the recent news about activist investor Elliott Management taking a $4bn stake in the soft-drink maker — premium subscribers can get the Lex take on this move.
More details on the other corporate reports, as well as the various central bankers out on the speaking circuit, in the lists below.
One more thing . . .
Wednesday marks the 60th anniversary of the official opening of London’s BT Tower. My in-laws visited in those early days of this classic example of sixties modernity to sample the swanky revolving restaurant at its summit. Sadly that was closed in 1980. The building could now be reborn however as a tourist destination after BT sold it to US-based hotelier MCR, perhaps enabling a new generation to enjoy a panoramic mealtime spin. If you cannot wait that long however, FT Globetrotter has a guide to the British capital’s current crop of high-up eateries.
Does London need more high dining? What is your favourite viewing point and why? Where would you recommend eating over the next seven days? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply. And have a good week.
Key economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
Monday
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives the keynote speech at Scotland’s Global Investment Summit
European Central Bank Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice. Speakers include ECB executive board member Philip Lane
Former CEO and chair of the owner of gambling firm Ladbrokes is due to appear at London’s Westminster Magistrates’ Court charged with offences including bribery. Kenny Alexander and Lee Feldman, who previously worked for GVC, now renamed Entain, are among 11 individuals British prosecutors have charged
China: mid-autumn festival. Financial markets closed
Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, UK: S&P Global/HCOB/HSBC construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data
EU: August retail trade figures
India: HSBC services PMI data
South Korea: Chuseok harvest festival holiday. Financial markets closed.
US: The Conference Board Employment Trends Index
Results: Constellation Brands Q2, Ferrexpo Q3 production report
Tuesday
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic takes part in a discussion on the US economic outlook at an event hosted by Fisk University in Nashville
FT Live Future of Retail event is held in London, in person and online. Register here
FT Live’s two-day Future of Asset Management North America 2025 event begins in New York, in person and online. Register here
OECD Forum on Green Finance and Investment 2025 begins in Paris, running until Wednesday
China: National Day Golden Week continues. Financial markets closed.
Germany: August industrial orders data
Hong Kong: The day after the Mid-Autumn Festival. Financial markets closed.
South Korea: Chuseok harvest festival holiday. Financial markets closed.
UK: Halifax House Price Index
US: Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Results: CVS Group FY, Imperial Brands pre-close trading statement, Liontrust Asset Management HY trading update, McCormick & Co Q3, Shell trading statement, Victorian Plumbing FY trading update
Wednesday
Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill gives the Annual Maxwell Fry Annual Lecture at the University of Birmingham
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at the 2025 Paris Europlace Forum in Tokyo
G-STIC’s three-day technology conference begins in Pretoria, where entrepreneurs, researchers, policymakers and investors will discuss market-ready innovations helping to meet sustainable development goals
China: National Day Golden Week continues. Financial markets closed
Germany: August production index
New Zealand: interest rate announcement
South Korea: Chuseok harvest festival substitution holiday. Financial markets closed
US: Federal Open Market Committee’s September meeting minutes published.
Results: Foresight Group HY trading update, Marston’s year end trading update, Unite Group trading update and Q3 fund valuations, Vertu Motors HY
Thursday
FT Live two-day Metals and Mining Summit begins in London, in person and online. Register here
Executives of the top German carmakers to meet Chancellor Friedrich Merz at a summit on the industry’s future in Berlin
British regulator the Financial Conduct Authority holds its annual public meeting in London, presenting its annual report and accounts with an opportunity for questions to the chair, chief executive and board members.
EU: European Central Bank publishes the accounts of its last monetary policy discussions
South Korea: Hangul Proclamation Day. Financial markets closed
UK: KPMG/REC Report on Jobs, plus RICS residential housing market survey.
Results: Ashoka India Equity Investment Trust FY, Bang & Olufsen Q1 trading statement, Delta Air Lines Q3, Fast Retailing FY, Levi Strauss & Co Q3, OMV Q3 trading update, PepsiCo Q3, Polar Capital Q2 assets under management update, Seven & i Holdings Q2, SSP Q4 trading update, S & U HY, Tata Consultancy Services Q2, Volution Group FY
Friday
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee gives opening remarks and moderates a discussion at the start of the 19th annual Community Bankers Symposium
Japan: 103rd Opinion Survey on household circumstances and economic conditions
Results: Hays Q1 trading statement, Ryohin Keikaku FY, VP trading update
World events
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
Hong Kong: mid-autumn festival, also known as the Moon Festival or Mooncake Festival, in parks, beaches and along the waterfront and featuring mass lighting of lanterns
Sweden: Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine announced in Stockholm.
Switzerland: WTO General Council meeting in Geneva
UK: first-year doctors to be balloted for the first time by the British Medical Association for strike action over the need for more medic training places
Tuesday
Barbados: new president elected by joint session of the House of Assembly and Senate
Israel: anniversary of the series of co-ordinated armed incursions in 2023 from the Gaza Strip into the Gaza envelope of southern Israel, carried out by Hamas and several other Palestinian militant groups, during the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah
Sweden: Nobel Prize in Physics announced by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences in Stockholm
Wednesday
Expected peak of the annual Draconid meteor shower, with up to 10 meteors an hour visible
UK: Conservative party annual conference concludes with the keynote speech by leader Kemi Badenoch. Labour party deputy leader ballot opens following the resignation of Angela Rayner last month
US: IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva gives a curtain raiser speech for the upcoming 2025 Annual Meetings at the Milken Center in Washington
Thursday
Estonia: Tallinn Digital Summit, an annual event hosted by the country’s Prime Minister Kristen Michal
Sweden: Nobel Prize for Literature announced in Stockholm.
UK: Your party hosts Rally For Real Change in Liverpool, with co-founders Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana attending
US: former secretary of state and first lady Hillary Clinton subpoenaed to appear before the House Oversight Committee as part of its investigation into sex offender Jeffrey Epstein
Friday
Norway: Nobel Peace Prize announced at a ceremony in Oslo
Slovenia: 2025 Nato Parliamentary Assembly Annual Session, where 281 parliamentary members from 32 Nato member states are due to discuss Euro-Atlantic defence and the continent’s security agenda
UK: Plaid Cymru’s two-day annual conference begins in Swansea, the same time that the Welsh Liberal Democrats meet in Wrexham
Saturday
Seychelles: conclusion of a three-day presidential run-off election after no candidate secured the required 50 per cent majority in the first round vote, held on September 27
UK: Scottish National party annual three-day conference begins in Aberdeen. In Belfast, Northern Ireland’s Ulster Unionist party annual conference opens
US: former president Bill Clinton and his wife Hillary celebrate their 50th wedding anniversary. Also celebrating 50 years is the satirical comedy series Saturday Night Live, which premiered on the NBC network in 1975
Sunday
Cameroon: presidential election
Germany: 2025 World Health Summit opens, an international strategic forum for global health, begins in Berlin, running until next Tuesday
Spain: National Day
UK: Greater Anglia rail service becomes latest formerly privatised rail franchise to return to public ownership under Great British Railways
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