MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Bank of England rate decision; GDP data for eurozone, Germany, France; EU economic sentiment, unemployment; Germany CPI; France consumer spending; trading updates for Shell, Schneider Electric, Rolls-Royce, AB InBev, BBVA, British American Tobacco, Sanofi, ING, Lloyds Banking Group, BMW, Stellantis, Societe Generale, Adidas, Air France KLM, LSEG
Opening Call:
European stock futures were mixed after Asia stocks broadly fell. The yield on U.S. Treasurys rose, the dollar strengthened. Gold rose and oil fell
Equities:
European stock futures were mixed ahead of the Bank of England’s rate decision. Markets widely expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged, with inflation still running close to policymakers’ 2% target despite fighting in the Middle East driving up energy costs.
The policy decision comes a day after the Federal Reserve held borrowing costs steady.
The U.S. central bank left investors guessing in the run-up to its policy decision, with some traders expecting a hike given that consumer-price inflation stood at 3.5% as of June.
“Against the backdrop of the recent re-escalation in the Middle East, we expect the Committee to emphasise that the path ahead will depend heavily on how the conflict evolves,” UBS economist Anna Titareva wrote.
Forex:
The U.S. dollar strengthened, with the greenback expected to be weighed by divergence in forward guidance between the Fed and other central banks, said DBS Group Research.
“By scrapping forward guidance and holding rates flat, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh marched the Fed into a monetary ‘hall of mirrors’ with volatile results,” said the senior foreign-exchange strategist.
Warsh left U.S. markets “stumbling in the dark,” Wee said. By contrast, the European Central Bank was more unified in flagging a September rate increase, handing the euro a distinct comparative advantage, he noted.
The British pound stands to appreciate “if the Bank of England defies the widespread consensus of a hold and surprises with a rate hike later today,” Wee added.
Bonds:
The yield on U.S. Treasurys were higher as those on longer-term bonds shot higher and yields on short-term Treasurys dropped, suggesting investors think that the Fed might not raise rates quickly enough to control inflation.
The gap between yields on Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, and ordinary Treasurys also increased, sending the same signal.
Investors are concerned that Warsh is “strong on inflation in word, but isn’t following through in deed,” said John Briggs, head of U.S. rates strategy at Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking.
Adding to inflation anxieties were developments in the Middle East, where a surprise missile attack by Iran dented hopes for a new deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump promised a sharp military response to the attack.
Energy:
Oil futures were lower on a possible technical correction after Wednesday’s strong gains.
However, losses may be limited by prospects of more U.S.-Iran ho hostilities that could exacerbate supply disruptions.
President Trump vowed to retaliate after Iran launched a surprise ballistic missile attack on U.S. forces in the Middle East, threatening to expand the ongoing conflict with another tit-for-tat escalation.
“We continue to see reduced flows and global tightening of the energy market as supportive of further upside in crude oil,” said TD Securities’ Macro Research.
Metals:
Gold rose, as the rise followed the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold its rates steady at its Wednesday meeting.
ING strategists expect the Fed to continue standing pat instead of raising rates in September, as the jobs market doesn’t appear to be as robust as the unemployment rate suggests, but acknowledge the decision could be a close one.
A higher-interest rate environment typically weighs on nonyielding assets like gold, they noted.
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Copper rose on a possible technical correction after Wednesday’s losses.
Traders appeared cautious leading up to the FOMC meeting, in which the central bank voted 9-3 to leave rates unchanged.
ANZ Research analysts noted that tighter monetary policy ahead would weigh on economic growth and demand.
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Iron ore futures were lower, with prices likely to remain range-bound as investors looked for more macro signals from key political meetings in China and the U.S. this week, said Nanhua Futures.
Iron ore demand remained weak as steel mills’ production pace slows, they noted.
TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
Kevin Warsh Asked the Market to Speak. It Answered.
Kevin Warsh has staked his chairmanship on the premise that a quieter Federal Reserve gets a cleaner read on what investors think. On Wednesday, he said it was working.
At a news conference after the Fed held interest rates steady, he pointed to how nominal and inflation-adjusted Treasury yields had risen since his debut meeting in June, among the largest moves between meetings in two decades. He said markets were responding to the economy rather than to the Fed, which was evidence that his pullback from doling out guidance was working. Pressed later on why he hadn’t acted on his inflation pledge by raising rates, he suggested those higher borrowing costs were doing some of the work of a rate increase the Fed hadn’t had to make.
BOE Expected to Follow Fed With Rate Hold, But Iran War Piles on Pressure
The Bank of England is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, with inflation still running close to policymakers’ 2% target despite fighting in the Middle East driving up energy costs.
The BOE’s policy decision comes a day after the Federal Reserve held borrowing costs steady.
Meta Stumbles as Tech Investors Demand Better Answers on AI Spending
The unconditional-love phase of Wall Street’s AI romance is over.
As Meta Platforms learned Wednesday, and as Alphabet’s Google saw last week, investors want better answers if they’re going to keep underwriting hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of investments in data centers and development of artificial-intelligence models.
Write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com
Expected Major Events for Thursday
04:30/NED: Jul Producer confidence survey
04:30/NED: Jun PPI
05:30/FRA: Jun Household consumption expenditure in manufactured goods
05:30/FRA: 2Q GDP – first estimate
06:00/SWE: Jun Retail sales
06:00/DEN: Jun Unemployment
06:30/HUN: 2Q Preliminary GDP
06:30/HUN: Jun Trade Balance
07:00/SPN: 2Q Preliminary GDP
07:00/SWE: Jul Consumer Tendency Survey
07:00/SWE: Jul Quarterly Business Tendency Survey
07:00/SVK: Jul Business tendency survey
07:00/SVK: Jul Economic sentiment indicator
07:00/SPN: Jul Flash Estimate CPI
07:00/SWI: Jul KOF economic barometer
07:00/AUT: 2Q Flash Estimate GDP
07:00/CZE: 2Q GDP preliminary estimate
07:00/TUR: Jun Employment / Unemployment
07:30/NED: 2Q GDP – 1st estimate
08:00/BUL: Jun PPI
08:00/GER: 2Q GDP – 1st release
08:00/ITA: 2Q GDP preliminary estimate
08:00/GER: Jul Bavaria CPI
08:00/GER: Jul North Rhine Westphalia CPI
08:00/GER: Jul Saxony CPI
08:00/GER: Jul Hesse CPI
08:00/GER: Jul Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI
08:00/GER: Jul Brandenburg CPI
08:30/POR: 2Q Flash Estimate GDP
09:00/CYP: May Industrial Production Index
09:00/EU: Jul Business & Consumer Surveys – Business Climate Indicator & Economic Sentiment Indicator
09:00/GRE: Jun PPI
09:00/CRO: Jun Retail trade
09:00/EU: 2Q Preliminary Flash Estimate GDP
09:00/MLT: Jun PPI
09:00/EU: Jun Unemployment
09:00/ITA: Jun Unemployment
09:30/BEL: Jul CPI
10:00/POR: Jun Retail trade
10:00/ITA: Jun PPI
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 30, 2026 00:15 ET (04:15 GMT)
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