Go back from this season to 2022 and tally only the tests against full-strength Springboks, France and England teams – and a pattern emerges. Over those four years (through three coaching regimes playing attacking rugby), there were 16 tests, home and away, against full-strength Springbok, French and English teams. The All Blacks won seven, drew one and lost eight. Two of the eight defeats (against the Boks in Wellington and England at Twickenham last year) involved uncomfortable-to-watch meltdowns. Exempted from this count are the four tests against an under-strength France last year and this year, and the losing series against Ireland in 2022 (Ireland a “big boy” then but less so now). Results against Australia, Argentina, Ireland, Wales, Scotland and other foes are not included.
Eight from 16 is a very different story to the All Blacks’ overall win record of 76%. It begs the question of how to combat, and overcome, the percentages used against them. They will not forgo their attacking style. Nor should they. As is often said, attacking rugby is in their DNA and there is little point trying to beat the Boks and others at the heavyweight game. There is no deep well of giant forwards here, as in South Africa, France and England.
However, Dave Rennie and his team face a dilemma. They are still perfecting their game, of course, but are trying to play a beautiful style without bringing the ugly bits up to the highest standards needed to topple teams like the Boks – scrums, lineouts, breakdowns. No building blocks, less beauty.
What to do? Some more lateral thinking might help – as they did when restoring Peter Lakai to the starting line-up, surprisingly using him as a principal lineout target, repairing the leaky lineouts of the second test. Clever, even if not a long-term solution.
Peter Lakai’s lineout work helped against the formidable Springboks set piece at the weekend. Photo / SmartFrame
The fourth test in Baltimore offers a chance for similar innovation in a one-off approach. So does next year’s World Cup in Australia, with the All Blacks drawn to meet the Boks in a quarter-final (great planning, World Rugby). Maybe the thinking needs to channel the 1977 All Blacks, perhaps the last time they were so slaughtered in the scrums (by the British Lions). Overpowered up front, they used three-man scrums (now outlawed) to clear the ball quickly for their superior runners and loose forwards, winning the final test 10-9 and the series 3-1, despite being badly outgunned in the tight. That was also the year they completely changed the game plan after being monstered by a huge and borderline violent French pack in the first test. They moved the ball at pace, took short lineouts and cut down rucks and mauls, tiring the big French pack.
Jason Ryan may be under some pressure as scrum coach now. Yes, the Boks scrum is emphatically the best in the world, but an All Blacks pack that does the Italian tank so much doesn’t augur well for the coach of that element. Also needed are some players to punch through that first, suffocating screen of Boks defence so the ball can be shifted to more open spaces. Few have done so except for Ardie Savea (now lost for the fourth test), Lakai, Asafo Aumua, Will Jordan and Cam Roigard, though his running game was kept largely quiet last weekend.
In mitigation, we shouldn’t forget that injured first-teamers like Tamaiti Williams, Leicester Fainga’anuku and Scott Barrett didn’t make this tour. Now others like Savea, Caleb Clarke, Luke Jacobson, Quinn Tupaea, Billy Proctor and Anton Segner have all been invalided home, with loosehead prop Ethan de Groot still to return from injury.
So while we are measuring the All Blacks against full-strength opponents, they haven’t been full strength themselves.
Springboks coach Rassie Erasmus allowed that Rennie’s men hadn’t had the time to develop the combinations his team had from being together since 2018. However, Erasmus knows full well the percentages are on his side. Rennie must find a way to upset the odds in Baltimore this week – and in Australia next year.
Paul Lewis writes about rugby, cricket, league, football, yachting, golf, the Olympics and Commonwealth Games.