This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Michael Burry (Trades, Portfolio) is raising concerns that the huge AI infrastructure commitments being made by major technology companies could leave them exposed to future asset write-downs, according to a Substack post.
Burry said net capital investment by S&P 500 companies reached 2.07% of GDP at June 30, a level he described as the highest in nearly four decades outside the period following the 2000 Nasdaq peak.
He estimated that Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Meta (META) and Oracle (ORCL) have about $3 trillion in commitments and other exposures linked to AI infrastructure, including leases, construction projects and purchase obligations.
Burry expects investment to keep rising and said write-downs could emerge around 2028 or 2029 if AI capacity exceeds demand. He compared the current spending cycle with the late-1990s telecom buildout, when heavy investment was followed by excess capacity, weaker returns and substantial depreciation. He also questioned Oracle’s treatment of customer prepayments and cited rising financing concerns surrounding its large data-center projects.
The remarks center on future capital intensity, with the impact depending on how quickly AI demand develops relative to new capacity.