England are unsurprising favourites to win this friendly game against Wales, but will they rest key players for next week’s trip to Latvia?
Best predictions for England vs WalesEngland -1 (Handicap 3-Way) @ -130 with BetMGMUnder 2.5 Goals @ -137 with BetMGMHarry Kane First goalscorer @ +260 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Tuchel’s men to win by two or more goals
Three of England’s last five meetings against Wales have ended in victory by at least a two-goal margin. Despite this, the betting markets indicate there’s only a 54.65% chance of this happening on Thursday evening.
This means there’s at least 5% of value in this selection. Also, Wales’ motivation needs to be considered, as they will host Belgium in a six-pointer 2026 World Cup qualifier next Monday.
Bellamy will be eager to play hard against England, but will be equally aware of avoiding injuries to key players before their match against Belgium. England’s chances of winning by a clear margin will be increased should Harry Kane be fit to play.
England vs Wales Prediction 1: England -1 (Handicap 3-Way) @ -130 with BetMGMWales’ counter-attacking approach to frustrate England
It’s difficult to see Craig Bellamy setting up his team to have a fluid and possession-based style at Wembley. Although it goes somewhat against his managerial principles, Bellamy will likely field a more defensively-minded side on Thursday to cause problems for England on transitions.
Interestingly, Wales have only scored once in their last seven competitive meetings against England. Their last goal came in their 2-1 defeat at Euro 2016. Moreover, their last competitive win against the English was in the Home Championship in 1984.
If the match proceeds as expected and England keep a clean sheet, they will have more than a 50% chance of failing to score over two goals. That’s why the Under 2.5 goals price may be worthwhile. The hosts are likely to keep a clean sheet but win by a two-goal margin.
England vs Wales Prediction 2: Under 2.5 goals @ -137 with BetMGMProlific Kane to find the net first
Harry Kane is in impressive form in front of goal. So far, the 32-year-old has netted 11 times in six matches for Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga season. Discussions have already started about Kane staying in Munich after the 2025/26 season ends.
He suffered a minor foot injury in Bayern’s last league game, but early indications suggest it won’t be enough to prevent him from playing on Thursday. Providing he passes a fitness test, he is at great odds of scoring first in this fixture.
The betting markets suggest he has only a 27.78% chance of scoring first, which is incredibly low considering he’s certain to start as England’s central striker if fit. Additionally, he has an 83% scoring strike rate playing for England in 2025.
Considering Ollie Watkins, Anthony Gordon, and Marcus Rashford have amassed three league goals between them so far this season, Kane is the prime candidate to find the net. It’s comfortably the top value bet from our trio of England vs Wales predictions.
England vs Wales Prediction 3: Harry Kane First goalscorer @ +260 with BetMGMOur analysis: Form of both teams
England prepare to host Wales for the first time in an international friendly since October 2020. However, the two home nations faced off in November 2022 at the World Cup in Qatar.
Thomas Tuchel’s Three Lions are at the top of their 2026 World Cup qualifying group. They’ve won all five of their opening qualification matches without conceding a goal. Fans and experts expected this outcome given the favourable Group K draw they received.
In many ways, England’s performance under manager Tuchel has appeared promising but ultimately been disappointing, lacking intensity and tempo in their play. However, there were encouraging signs of the team’s evolution in their most recent away win in Serbia. This was an away game that many feared would be a tough test.
Tuchel’s main issue regarding team selection for the Wales game is centered on captain Harry Kane, who suffered a minor foot injury in Bayern Munich’s last game. However, Kane is adamant he will be fit to start.
Meanwhile, Wales are in decent shape to push for 2026 World Cup qualification after their latest 1-0 away win in Kazakhstan. Craig Bellamy’s men are in decent shape to at least reach the playoffs, having secured ten points from their first five games.
The Welsh only lost narrowly to Canada in their last friendly game. Bellamy will be eager to see how well his 4-3-3 system performs against one of the world’s top nations. They will rely on the likes of Sorba Thomas and Brennan Johnson to cause problems for England during counter-attacks.
Probable lineups for England vs Wales
England expected lineup: Pickford, Lewis-Skelly, James, Guehi, Konsa, Henderson, Rice, Gordon, Eze, Saka, Kane
Wales expected lineup: Darlow, Davies, Williams, Mepham, Lawlor, Ampadu, Wilson, Sheehan, Johnson, Thomas, Moore