In the predictions game, you win some, and you lose some. When it comes to Michael, we may have hit the wrong note.
When the musical biopic was released April, we offered our instant analysis of where the film was most likely to contend for awards — and when assessing the acting, we stated:
First, let’s acknowledge that the two actors splitting duty as Michael — Jaafar Jackson (Michael’s nephew and Jermaine’s son) plays the older version, while Juliano Valdi portrays the Jackson 5-era spark plug — both have undeniable charisma and performing chops as they uncannily recreate Michael’s signature moves. Still, neither will be in the Oscar mix… [emphasis added]
We stand corrected. As we noted in August, Michael had bucked negative reviews, became a record-setting, a billion-dollar phenomenon, and, most importantly for the purposes of Gold Derby, has remained a viable player in above-the-line categories in our Oscar predictions. The film currently sits at No. 16 in the overall Best Picture odds, while Jaafar Jackson is in the Top 10 for Best Actor. (We weren’t completely wrong: we did call Colman Domingo in the supporting race; he ranks at No. 8.)
Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay Best Casting Best Cinematography Best Costume Design Best Film Editing Best Makeup and Hairstyling Best Production Design Best Sound Best Visual Effects Best Animated Feature
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The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
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Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
37.
Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother
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Spider-Man: Brand New Day
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Long Day’s Journey into Night
49.
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51.
Wuthering Heights
Warner Bros.
52.
Is God Is
Amazon MGM
53.
Rose
Mubi
54.
Gentle Monster
Netflix
55.
Ebenezer
Paramount
56.
Prima Facie
Sony
57.
I Love Boosters
Neon
58.
Ha-Chan
SPC
Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty!
59.
Coward
Mubi
60.
Gail Daughtry
SPC
Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity Sex Pass
61.
PARK CITY, UTAH – JANUARY 26: Stephanie Ahn attends the 29th Annual SAGindie Filmmakers Luncheon at Sundance at Cafe Terigo on January 26, 2026 in Park City, Utah. (Photo by Fred Hayes/Getty Images for SAGindie)
Fred Hayes/Getty Images
62.
Wicker
Black Bear
63.
Whalefall
20th Century
64.
The Weight
Vertical
65.
A Long Winter
MUBI
66.
The Unknown
Neon
67.
Late Fame
Magnolia
68.
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
Sony Classics
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
69.
Tenzing
Apple
70.
Bunker
SPC; Searchlight
71.
Couture
Vertical
72.
The Christophers
Neon
73.
La Gradiva
1-2
74.
Bitter Christmas
Warner Bros.
75.
The Dog Stars
20th Century
76.
Woman Unknown
Woman Unknown / Denmark
77.
Forgotten Island
DreamWorks
78.
Glenrothan
Lionsgate
79.
Her Private Hell
Neon
80.
Hope
Neon
81.
The Get Out
Vertical
82.
In the Hand of Dante
Netflix
83.
The Liberation
Bleecker Street
84.
The Wizard of the Kremlin
Vertical
The Wizard of the Kremlin
85.
Klara and the Sun
Sony
86.
Verity
Amazon MGM
87.
The Uprising
Focus
88.
Madden
Amazon MGM
89.
A Talent for Murder
Bleecker Street
90.
Never After Dark
Magnolia
Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay Best Casting Best Cinematography Best Costume Design Best Film Editing Best Makeup and Hairstyling Best Production Design Best Sound Best Visual Effects Best Animated Feature
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LONDON, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 16: Leo Woodall attends the GQ Men Of The Year Awards 2022 at The Mandarin Oriental Hyde Park on November 16, 2022 in London, England. (Photo by Gareth Cattermole/Getty Images)
Gareth Cattermole/Getty Images
52.
Alden Ehrenreich
Frédéric Dugit/PHOTOPQR/LE PARISIEN/MAXPPP/Newscom/The Mega Agency
53.
CANNES, FRANCE – MAY 23: Charles Melton attends Chopard ART Evening at the Martinez on May 23, 2023 in Cannes, France. (Photo by Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images for Chopard)
Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images
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CANNES, FRANCE – MAY 20: Leonardo Sbaraglia poses during the “Amarga Navidad” (Bitter Christmas) photocall at the 79th annual Cannes Film Festival at Palais des Festivals on May 20, 2026 in Cannes, France. (Photo by Hoda Davaine/Getty Images)
Hoda Davaine/Getty Images
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CANNES, FRANCE – MAY 18: Hwang Jung-min poses during the “Hope” photocall at the 79th annual Cannes Film Festival at Palais des Festivals on May 18, 2026 in Cannes, France. (Photo by Aurore Marechal/Getty Images)
Aurore Marechal/Getty Images
56.
Miles Teller
Richard Shotwell/Variety
57.
Oscar Isaac
Gary Mitchell /Landmark Media / Landmark Media/Newscom/The Mega Agency
58.
CABOURG, FRANCE – JUNE 13: Valentin Campagne attends the “Coward” photocall during Day Four of the 40th Cabourg Film Festival on June 13, 2026 in Cabourg, France. (Photo by Aurore Marechal/Getty Images)
Aurore Marechal/Getty Images
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CANNES, FRANCE – MAY 20: Dmitriy Mazurov poses during the “Minotaur” photocall at the 79th annual Cannes Film Festival at Palais des Festivals on May 20, 2026 in Cannes, France. (Photo by Aurore Marechal/Getty Images)
Aurore Marechal/Getty Images
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CABOURG, FRANCE – JUNE 13: Emmanuel Macchia attends the “Coward” photocall during Day Four of the 40th Cabourg Film Festival on June 13, 2026 in Cabourg, France. (Photo by Aurore Marechal/Getty Images)
Aurore Marechal/Getty Images
When it comes to the key precursor awards, Jaafar has even better odds. Since we’ve begun tracking the Golden Globes and SAG’s Actor Awards, Michael’s breakout star has cemented himself as a major contender. He’s trending toward a nomination for Best Musical/Comedy Actor at the Globes, ranking fourth in what will be a six-person showdown. While Lionsgate has not yet confirmed which side of the Globes divide the Antoine Fuqua-helmed film will be submitted in, Gold Derby is tracking Michael in the Musical/Comedy categories based on the best intel that we have right now.
Jaafar JacksonBruce Talamon/Lionsgate
While recent musical biopics have largely gravitated toward Drama — including A Complete Unknown, Elvis, and Bohemian Rhapsody, which shares producer Graham King with Michael — Jaafar and the film would have a better path toward nominations in Musical/Comedy. In either case, international voters, who comprise the bulk of the Globes’ voting body, are more likely to look favorably on Michael Jackson’s legacy than U.S. members concerned with the abuse allegations unaddressed in the film.
Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor
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John Malkovich
Wild Horse Nine
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Brad Pitt
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
6.
Jaafar JacksonGlen Wilson/Lionsgate
Meanwhile, at the Actor Awards, Jaafar is holding onto the sixth spot in what will be a five-thespian field, coming in right behind Tom Cruise, whose odds have taken a hit across the board since Digger debuted to rough reviews.
Film Actor
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John Malkovich
Wild Horse Nine
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Ryan Gosling
Project Hail Mary
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5.
6.
All of this comes with a giant asterisk. These are still extremely early days, and we have yet to see how Lionsgate will campaign Michael on the FYC circuit. It will be a tricky race to run, but for now, Jaafar is trending in the right direction.