Consumer spending was strong in September compared to the same period last year, lifting sales by 5.42%, according to Thursday’s (Oct. 9) report from the National Retail Federation’s Retail Monitor.
Sales are not adjusted for inflation, which also ticked higher last month. Despite the year-over-year advancement, sales were down 0.66% from the prior month’s report. NRF said its September sales data is compiled by Affinity Solutions and uses actual credit and debit card purchase data and does not require updating like survey-based reports.
“Retail sales dipped in September as consumers hit the pause button after two solid months of back-to-school spending,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Amid continued economic uncertainty, consumers opted to preserve spending power in preparation for the important holiday season. While month-over-month spending data has fluctuated as consumers have reacted to changing circumstances, year-over-year gains show robust growth and signal momentum as we head into the holidays.”
Core sales, which exclude restaurants, automotive dealers and gas station receipts, were down 0.49% month over month in September, but rose 5.72% from the same period last year. The trade group reports that total sales were up 5.12% year-over-year for the first nine months of 2025. Core sales rose 5.32% over the same period.
While most retailers no longer report monthly sales, Costco still does. The wholesale club giant reported U.S. comparable sales increased 5.1% in September from a year ago. Sales were up 5%, excluding gasoline, and in line with the NRF results for the entire retail sector. Like the NRF report, Costco’s sales were down slightly from the previous month.
Retail analysts at Jeffries said consumers are spending on occasions and that will likely continue into the holiday season. Back-to-school sales were comparable to a year ago and healthy overall. That said, the September dip could be explained by consumers waiting for big October sales events.
The biggest gains in September were recorded in digital/online sales, which jumped 21.35% from a year ago. Online sales grew at more than twice the rate of all the other categories.
Sporting goods, hobby, music and book sales were up 8.81% in September compared to a year ago. Analysts said that’s not a surprise given that fall youth sports leagues typically form in late August and early September.
Clothing and accessory sales were up 7.35% year over year amid active back-to-school deal shopping and the higher prices for shoes, jeans and outerwear compared to a year ago. General merchandise sales also increased 5.52% from a year ago.
Food prices continue to increase, with the NRF reporting grocery sales increasing 4.79% from a year ago. Meat and egg prices were 7.3% and 10.9% higher year over year, respectively, according to federal data from August. Coffee prices rose 20% from a year ago. The only food categories showing lower prices were frozen vegetables, frozen desserts, cereals and lunch meats that were on promotion for back-to-school.
Sales for health and personal care items increased 4.65% in September, according to NRF data. Over-the-counter med prices were down 2.7% from a year ago, but personal care product costs are 1.1% more expansion than a year ago.
NRF reports sales for electronics and appliances rose 4.43% in September from a year ago. The cost of computers has come down from a year ago by about 2%. There was also some stockpiling ahead of tariffs on electronics coming out of China.
Furniture sales and home furnishing sales were up 0.56% in September, and prices in these categories continue to escalate. Home furnishing prices rose 2.2% in August, and furniture prices are up 9.5% from a year ago.
The only segment with lower sales was building and garden supplies, down 1.2% from a year ago. Gardening supply costs are up 2.6% year over year, and building costs continue to rise, with lumber prices up 13% from the same time last year.
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