Another week has passed, and a level of uncertainty regarding the Oscar race has risen for some categories, while stabilizing for others. I have gone on the record saying the Best Picture seems much easier to predict compared to past years; this is a two-horse race, and really nothing is going to change that unless Dune: Part Three ends up being the big surprise of the year, though I have some doubts regarding that. It’s probably best to focus on other categories for the next few weeks, and this week is a focus on Best Actor and Best Actress specifically.
Best Actor
This is one of those categories where the lineup seems down to about six or seven major performances and considering how far we are from the Oscar season, that’s really saying something. Three locks seem destined
Matt Damon, The Odyssey
Andrew Scott, Elsinore
John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
Any of these three have a shot at winning, and the pathway is clear through critics, SAG, etc. The last two slots are down to a select few people that might include:
Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
Tom Cruise, Digger
Robert Pattinson, Primetime
Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!
Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky
There are a couple more names that can land a slot in the Oscar race, including John Turturro for The Only Living Pickpocket in New York and sight unseen, even Timothée Chalamet for Dune: Part Three, but it seems down to the top four above.
Phil Lord and Chris Miller’s film is being really elevated by a less-than-packed fall awards slate; Gosling’s performance is in Project Hail Mary, and if one likes the film, one would have to at least respect the performance, so a spot in the top five makes a ton of sense.
After having seen ADG’s Digger, and even more amusingly, the industry push for the film, Cruise has a fighting shot at staying in the top five, especially as the performance and showcase of it all really does leave an impact on the viewer. However, this too is debatable this early out. The top five, as it stands of Damon, Scott, Malkovich, Gosling, and Cruise (which was my five for months before the initial Digger reactions), seems right now.
For reference here is what the Award Expert Community is thinking for the category
Best Actress
Julianne Moore is likely winning for Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut. The role of a veteran actress portraying someone who has never acted before seems a bit on the nose and just too Oscar-baity to entirely root for (especially with some underdogs in the race that will be mentioned later in the post), but one cannot deny the strength of the performance after seeing it.
The rest of the category can be defined by five or six other performances including
Olivia Wilde, The Invite
Inde Navarrette, Obsession
Sandra Hüller, Rose or Fatherland
Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann
Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden
Some will argue that Emily Blunt for Spielberg’s Disclosure Day or even Juliette Binoche for Hammer’s Queen at Sea can enter the five, and I can entertain those possibilities, but it will depend on how the season goes.
Olivia Wilde very well might be on track to be the first woman nominated for acting and directing for the same film, and at this point, could be the runner-up to Moore. Unless Barker’s film turns out to be too difficult for the Academy to absorb, Navarrette’s performance resonates deeply and should get into any field. Sandra Hüller is having a year, and with either Schleinzer’s film or Pawlikowski’s works (more likely the former), she should find a slot in here. For the last slot, I would put in Madeley for Heder’s film, which seems very “steak eater” friendly in its presentation and role (biopic from a director of a previous Best Picture winner), so I put her in over Virginie Efira, though this will still be a close call until January.
For reference here is what the Award Expert Community is thinking for this category
This week starts my “coverage” of the Montclair Film Festival, which runs from this upcoming Friday, October 16th, until Sunday, October 25th, and I will see at the very least Siân Heder’s Being Heumann, Brad Bird’s Ray Gunn, Peter Farrelly’s I Play Rocky, Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, and closing with Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! though there could be a few more that are also seen over this time period.
Oscar Predictions for Week of 12 October, 2026
A few changes have been made following last week
Olivia Wilde is in Best Director over Denis Villeneuve for now. I am considering removing Cristian Mungiu, but the European nature of the directing branch makes me keep him in tentatively
Tom Cruise for Digger has been moved back into the Best Actor five over Robert Pattinson
I Play Rocky has been moved into Best Casting over The Debut, I look forward to seeing it at Montclair and seeing if Ippolito can break the precedent of young actors.
You Can See Everything has been moved to #1 for Best Documentary Feature over Naza (the former is opening in theaters this week, which will be a big get for the documentary)
Alas, here they are
Best Picture
The Odyssey
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Wild Horse Nine
Project Hail Mary
The Invite
Dune: Part Three
The Debut
Obsession
I Play Rocky
Fjord
(alts: You Can See Everything, Digger, Club Kid, Elsinore, The Social Reckoning, All of a Sudden, The Adventures of Cliff Booth, Disclosure Day, Werwulf, Behemoth!)
Best Director
Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
Olivia Wilde, The Invite
Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
(alts: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger Paweł Pawlikowski, Fatherland, Christopher Miller and Phil Lord for Project Hail Mary, Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day)
Best Actor
Matt Damon, The Odyssey
Andrew Scott, Elsinore
John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
Tom Cruise, Digger
(alts: Robert Pattinson, Primetime Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! Tom Cruise, Digger Sebastian Stan, Fjord Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth, Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!, John Turturro The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, Jaafar Jackson, Michael)
Best Actress
Julianne Moore, The Debut
Inde Navarrette, Obsession
Sandra Hüller, Rose
Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann
Olivia Wilde, The Invite
(alts: Juliette Binoche, Queen At Sea Renate Reinsve, Fjord Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning, Sandra Hüller, Fatherland, Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day )
Best Supporting Actor
Guitarricadelafuente, La Bola Negra
Paul Giamatti, The Debut
Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
John Leguizamo, The Odyssey
Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
(alts: Riz Ahmed, Digger, Willem Dafoe, Werwulf)
Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
Penélope Cruz, La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Olivia Colman, Elsinore
Samantha Morton, The Odyssey
Penélope Cruz, The Invite
(Alts: Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine Sandra Hüller, Digger Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden or Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary, Samantha Morton, The Odyssey )
Best Original Screenplay
Wild Horse Nine
The Debut
Fjord
Obsession
I Play Rocky
(alts: Elsinore, and Club Kid)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Project Hail Mary
The Odyssey
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
The Invite
All of a Sudden
(alts: Ink, Being Heumann, Dune: Part Three)
Best Casting
The Odyssey
Wild Horse Nine
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Obsession
The Debut
(alts: I Play Rocky, Being Heumann, The Social Reckoning and Digger)
Best International Feature
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Fjord
All of a Sudden
Rose
Minotaur
(Alternate: Possible Love and Fatherland)
Best Animated Feature
Wildwood
Hoppers
Toy Story 5
Ray Gunn
Forgotten Island
Best Documentary Feature
You Can See Everything
Naza
Once Upon a Time in Harlem
American Doctor
One in a Million
Best Cinematography
The Odyssey
Dune: Part Three
Fatherland
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Werwulf
Best Editing
The Odyssey
Wild Horse Nine
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Project Hail Mary
I Play Rocky
Best Production Design
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
Dune: Part Three
La Bola Negra
Digger
Best Costume Design
The Odyssey
Werwulf
Sense and Sensibility
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Dune: Part Three
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Werwulf
Digger
The Odyssey
Clayface
Dune: Part Three
Best Visual Effects
Dune: Part Three
Project Hail Mary
The Odyssey
Godzilla Minus Zero
Whalefall
Best Sound
The Odyssey
Dune: Part Three
Project Hail Mary
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
The Mosquito Bowl
Best Score
The Odyssey
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Wild Horse Nine
Disclosure Day
Project Hail Mary
Best Song
La Nieve from La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
How to Write a Song (Without You) from Power Ballad
This City May have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out) from The Debut
By Any Means from By Any Means
I Knew It, I Knew You from Toy Story 5
As always,
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