ndonesia’s recent decision to trim pipeline gas exports to Singapore is too marginal to ease supply gaps facing industrial plants in Java, with export capacity set to keep shrinking as demand outpaces production. Localized
shortages are projected to widen sharply through 2028.
Domestic gas demand rose 4 percent year-on-year in the January-July period, while production fell 3.7 percent, according to data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) coordinated by the International Energy Forum and backed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded a nationwide LNG export volume of 6.2 million tonnes from January through September, down 23 percent from the same period in 2025 as shipments are reduced to safeguard domestic supply.
Yayan Satyakti, an energy economist at Universitas Padjadjaran, expects the volume of gas available for export to continue to shrink as production declines and demand rises.
“Our calculations indicate that LNG export capacity will fall from approximately 1,490 million standard cubic feet per day [MMSCFD] in 2025 to around 950 MMSCFD by 2027, assuming domestic needs are met first. This projection does not yet account for the Eni project,” Yayan told The Jakarta Post on Thursday, referring to the Italian company’s deep-water gas projects offshore East Kalimantan.
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As of Oct. 24, the government has curtailed pipeline gas exports to Singapore by 31 MMSCFD, approximately 8 percent of the previous 409.5 MMSCFD volume. The gas exported to the neighboring city state originates from the Natuna Field, and the amount freed up by the reduced shipments is now channeled to a power plant run by state electricity company (PLN) in Batam, Riau Islands.