New industry forecasts revealing the shift from new to used vans in the UK commercial vehicle market are now out from Cox Automotive.
Said to mark a first for the sector, Cox Automotive has developed forecasts for both the new and used commercial vehicle markets.
In the new commercial vehicle market, the forecasts project that the market will reach 320,380 new van registrations by the close of 2025; dropping 11.3% year-on-year.
The outlook for used vans is significantly more positive, with transactions forecast to total 999,678. Although that’s a 0.9% decline compared to 2024, it’s 11.9% above 2019 levels.
The data illustrates the substantial shift between the two markets since 2020, as buyers have increasingly opted for reasonably priced used vans over new models.
But while the used market is performing well, it still faces challenges.
Matthew Davock, director of commercial vehicles at Manheim UK, said higher-mileage vehicles continue to present a challenge for valuations due to extended fleet replacement cycles and a greater variation in condition.
He also warned that an imbalance between supply and demand for some segments, particularly in the small van and 4×4 pickup segments, may continue to impact values in the coming months.
“Currently, the forecast residual values in the used van market have been revised down by an average of 1.5% compared with the previous month, reflecting typical seasonal trends and economic uncertainty.”
Davock added that Manheim Auction Services is outperforming the market averages.
“We’re seeing strong conversion rates (84% in H1), growth in vans sold (16% year-on-year), a 12% improvement in van mileages and a 4% uplift in average age.”
The new electric van market is faring well. Electric van registrations for the first seven months of the year rose by 59.9% compared to the same period in 2024, with 17,856 units registered. Following this latest uplift, electric vans now account for 9.1% of the new van market; however, this still lags behind the ZEV mandate target of 16% market share for 2025.
In the used market, electric van values are expected to remain volatile due to limited transaction data, retail hesitancy, and cost barriers compared with diesel and petrol models. While electric van arrivals have increased, with sold volumes of electric vans increasing by 61% year-on-year across Manheim auctions, the market for used electric vans will only mature once pricing becomes competitive with internal combustion engine alternatives.
Davock continued: “The used electric van market is a mixed picture. Demand for these vehicles is increasing, and we are seeing an increase in volumes across our sites, but adoption remains below the Government’s mandated market share as buyer confidence remains challenged. Concerns such as carry capacity and range anxiety continue to hinder further adoption. The values of these vehicles are expected to remain volatile due to limited transaction data, buyer hesitancy and higher running costs.”
Manheim added that the Plug-in Van Grant, now extended until April 2027, remains crucial to encouraging electric van adoption. But it warned that infrastructure and grid connection delays continue to block further progress.