Rigetti Computing’s stock surged 25% yesterday following JPMorgan Chase’s announcement of a $10 billion “Security and Resiliency Initiative” targeting 27 industries and technologies, including quantum computing. This development lifted the entire quantum computing sector, with peers like D-Wave Quantum and IonQ experiencing similar gains.

The stock’s momentum has been extraordinary—185% returns over the past month. This rally validates our earlier thesis about RGTI stock’s 10x potential, as discussed in our recent coverage.

That being said, if you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock like RGTI, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 105% since its inception. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

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The Bull Case

JPMorgan’s substantial capital commitment signals institutional confidence in quantum computing’s commercial viability. The initiative’s focus on U.S. technological leadership suggests sustained support for the sector. RGTI’s positioning within this landscape presents genuine upside potential, particularly if the company can capture meaningful share of incoming capital flows.

The 185% monthly return, while impressive, doesn’t necessarily indicate overextension if quantum computing adoption accelerates faster than current market expectations.

The Risk Reality

However, three critical factors demand attention:

Valuation Risk: A 185% gain in one month creates vulnerability to profit-taking and sentiment shifts. The stock’s price now embeds high growth expectations that require flawless execution. Also, see RGTI stock returns compared to some of its tech peers.
Sector Volatility: Quantum computing remains speculative. JPMorgan’s announcement covers 27 areas—capital allocation to quantum specifically remains undefined. Broad industry initiatives don’t guarantee individual company success.
Downside Exposure: As outlined in our previous downside analysis, RGTI faces significant risk if near-term milestones disappoint or if quantum commercialization timelines extend beyond investor patience.

See, investing in a single stock without comprehensive analysis can be risky. Consider the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to produce strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid-, and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks provided a responsive way to make the most of upbeat market conditions while limiting losses when markets head south, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics.

The Bottom Line

RGTI presents a high-risk, high-reward proposition. The JPMorgan catalyst is real, and further gains are plausible given quantum computing’s structural growth trajectory. However, the risk-reward balance has shifted after the recent rally. Investors must reconcile RGTI’s momentum with its vulnerability. Those entering now should size positions accordingly, recognizing that both the 10x upside scenario and the downside risk scenario remain in play. This is not a stock for risk-averse portfolios.

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