Finnair Oyj (HLSE:FIA1S) posted a mixed set of numbers this period, with earnings forecast to surge 73.5% per year, far ahead of the Finnish market’s expected 17.1% growth rate. Net profit margin narrowed to 0.3% from 2.1% last year, and though the company delivered annual earnings growth of 53.6% over the past five years, this year’s figures include a large one-off gain of €42.6 million up to September 2025.
See our full analysis for Finnair Oyj.
Up next, we will see how these headline results compare to the narratives and expectations shaping Finnair’s outlook. Some assumptions will hold up, but others may face tough questions as we dig deeper.
See what the community is saying about Finnair Oyj
HLSE:FIA1S Earnings & Revenue History as at Nov 2025
Analysts predict that Finnair’s profit margins will rise from 0.5% today to 2.7% within three years, signaling significant anticipated improvement beyond this year’s subdued 0.3% net margin.
According to the analysts’ consensus view, several key strategies are underpinning this optimism:
The capacity increase of roughly 10% (ASK growth) in 2025, combined with investments in fuel-efficient aircraft, is expected to drive both top-line growth and strengthen underlying margins.
Growth in high-margin ancillary sales and expected route efficiencies if Russian overflights resume are seen as strong levers for margin uplift, helping to counteract higher environmental and operating costs.
While industrial disputes and cost inflation continue to be risks, healthy summer demand and the ongoing fleet renewal provide tangible support for the positive margin outlook.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.61% per year over the coming three years, which could further enhance earnings per share if profit growth materializes as forecast.
What stands out is that despite these bullish drivers, the large one-off gain of €42.6 million included up to September 2025 has inflated the latest reported earnings. This makes the underlying margin story one to watch as these extraordinary items fade from results.
Fuel efficiency and strategic route changes will be critical in determining if this margin trajectory is sustainable or just a temporary lift.
See how the consensus narrative could shape the next phase of Finnair’s story: 📊 Read the full Finnair Oyj Consensus Narrative.
Finnair’s shares are trading at a 55x Price-to-Earnings ratio, far above both the global airline industry average of 8.7x and its peer group at 14.3x, even as reported earnings benefit from one-off items.
Analysts’ consensus view flags this premium valuation as a point of tension:
The current share price of €2.85 sits well below the DCF fair value estimate of €15.69. This suggests theoretical upside if optimistic forecasts are realized.
However, a PE multiple this elevated could be hard to justify long term if future profit margins remain volatile and earnings rely on non-recurring gains.
Story Continues
Operating expenses have increased by 8.4%, driven by higher traffic and landing charges as well as maintenance costs. Ongoing industrial action has already led to €22 million in direct costs.
The consensus narrative highlights mounting headwinds:
Environmental compliance and sustainable fuel costs are expected to rise a further €20 million, squeezing net margins unless offset by strong capacity growth and ancillary sales.
Declining ticket fares, down 4.6% overall and by double digits in the Middle East, threaten to undercut revenue and profitability if the company cannot compensate through efficiency gains or fleet optimization.
To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Finnair Oyj on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you’ll be alerted when the story evolves.
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A great starting point for your Finnair Oyj research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
Despite growth potential, Finnair’s high valuation and reliance on one-off gains raise concerns about earnings quality and whether future profits are sustainable.
If you prefer companies trading at more reasonable valuations with earnings backed by underlying fundamentals, use our these 831 undervalued stocks based on cash flows to discover investment ideas that might offer stronger value and upside.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include FIA1S.HE.
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