ChatGPT maker OpenAI was voted the second most likely “billion-dollar AI startup” to fail in an informal survey at the Cerebral Valley AI Conference. The result offers an unexpected perspective on a company often regarded as a major player in AI. The survey asked founders and investors which AI startup they would be willing to bet against, a question not typically raised so openly in Silicon Valley. Search startup Perplexity received the most votes, followed by OpenAI. Meanwhile, when the audience was asked whether they could invest in any private technology company, most people voted for the Claude maker Anthropic, while OpenAI took second place. According to a Business Insider report, independent journalist Eric Newcomer conducted the survey, gathering responses from more than 300 attendees before panels featuring other major AI companies, such as Anthropic and xAI. This shows that some industry professionals are becoming more cautious about the success of AI startups. Even with a lot of money going into AI, there is now some doubt about how well certain big companies in the field will do.
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OpenAI taking second place on the list may seem unexpected because it is often viewed as a consumer-focused leader in the AI space. However, its rapidly rising valuation and significant infrastructure costs have raised concerns for some investors. Even though Sam Altman has acknowledged the possibility of an AI bubble, OpenAI CEO rejected the idea that his company’s valuation is overstated during a recent conversation with investor Brad Gerstner.”How can a company with $13 billion in revenues make $1.4 trillion of spend commitments?” Gerstner asked Altman at the interview.”If you want to sell your shares, I’ll find you a buyer. Enough,” Altman replied.Altman noted that interest in the company remains strong. In fact, both OpenAI and Perplexity were popular choices in another part of the survey that asked which companies respondents would be willing to bet on.Perplexity, which also offers an AI-powered search browser, is aiming to compete with Google, and being ranked first on the list is not unexpected.Perplexity has become a typical example in discussions about the possibility of an AI bubble, as it has raised frequent funding rounds and attracted strong investor interest at valuations reported to range from $14 billion to $50 billion, according to the report.When asked about the Cerebral Valley survey, Perplexity spokesperson Jesse Dwyer responded in an email: “Geeze, it sounds more like the judgmental valley conference.”However, it’s important to note that any informal, anonymous survey should be viewed cautiously. Yet, the results offer insight into private opinions, as many founders and investors discuss concerns about an AI bubble but rarely mention specific companies.Unlike public markets, private investors do not typically bet against startups, and openly criticising a company without clear justification is generally discouraged in Silicon Valley.