Rocket Lab’s narrative is shifting as analysts nudge up their price targets into the $60 to high $60s range, even while the long term fair value estimate holds steady near $65.67 per share and revenue growth expectations remain anchored around 36.36% with a stable discount rate near 7.56%. This subtle reset reflects growing conviction that sustained Electron launch cadence and accelerating Space Systems demand can support a higher, more durable valuation base in spite of extended Neutron timelines. Read on to see how you can track these evolving targets and stay ahead of the next turn in the Rocket Lab story.
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🐂 Bullish Takeaways
Stifel lifted its target to $65 from $55 while reiterating a Buy, citing steady Electron launch cadence with 4 launches in the quarter, higher Electron ASP, and a steadily scaling Space Systems business as the SDA program moves into full production.
BofA raised its target to $60 from $50 and kept a Buy rating, arguing that an industry shift toward consolidation could favor Rocket Lab in a winner take most model if it continues to execute on strategic vision and integration.
Bullish analysts emphasize execution and growth momentum, particularly the combination of stable launch operations and expanding Space Systems revenue, as key supports for a higher valuation base despite elevated expectations.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
Morgan Stanley trimmed its target slightly to $67 from $68 and maintains an Equal Weight rating, reflecting more cautious views on risk reward even as the market appears to shrug off Neutron schedule shifts into 2026.
More neutral commentary centers on program risk and spending, with Morgan Stanley warning that schedule revisions for Neutron can prolong program costs and create cascading manifest impacts. This may temper upside even as Electron demand and Space Systems performance remain solid.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!
NasdaqCM:RKLB Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
Rocket Lab scheduled its next Electron mission, Follow My Speed, to launch from New Zealand less than 48 hours after a successful HASTE flight from Virginia. This positions the company for a record 18th annual launch and underscores its rapid launch responsiveness.
The company completed a HASTE suborbital mission for the Defense Innovation Unit and Missile Defense Agency, advancing hypersonic and missile defense technology testing just 14 months after contract signing and reinforcing its role as a trusted national security partner.
Rocket Lab delivered two ESCAPADE Mars spacecraft to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center after designing, building, integrating, and testing the vehicles in about three and a half years, showcasing the maturity and speed of its vertically integrated Space Systems business.
Rocket Lab secured a second multi launch contract with Synspective, bringing the total to 21 future dedicated Electron launches for StriX SAR satellites and marking the largest single customer order in Electron’s history. This strengthens long term launch backlog visibility.
Story Continues
Fair Value Estimate has remained unchanged at approximately $65.67 per share. This indicates no material shift in the long term intrinsic value assessment.
Discount Rate has risen slightly from about 7.50% to roughly 7.56%, reflecting a modest increase in perceived risk or required return.
Revenue Growth has remained effectively flat at around 36.36%, suggesting no meaningful change in long term top line growth expectations.
Net Profit Margin has held steady at approximately 10.28%, with no significant revision to long term profitability assumptions.
Future P/E has increased marginally from about 369.29x to roughly 369.87x, signaling a very small upward adjustment in the implied forward earnings multiple.
Narratives are investor-written stories that connect a company’s mission, strategy, and risks to concrete numbers like forecast revenue, earnings, margins, and a Fair Value estimate. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, used by millions of investors, Narratives make it easy to see how a company’s story translates into a financial model and Fair Value, then compare that to today’s share price to decide when to buy or sell. As news, deals, or earnings arrive, these Narratives update dynamically so your view of the company stays current.
Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Rocket Lab to stay on top of what really drives the valuation:
How higher Electron launch cadence, reusable technology, and Synspective and government contracts could support multi year revenue growth and backlog expansion.
Whether Neutron’s development path, R&D intensity, and vertical integration ultimately convert into durable cash generation and margin expansion.
How analysts’ Fair Value around $65.67 and assumed 36.36% revenue growth stack up against today’s price, and what that means for upside versus downside.
Read the full Rocket Lab Narrative and track every update in real time.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include RKLB.
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