Blue Owl Capital (OWL) has had a bumpy stretch lately, with shares down sharply this year despite solid revenue and earnings growth. That disconnect is exactly why investors are taking a closer look now.
See our latest analysis for Blue Owl Capital.
At around $15.65, Blue Owl’s recent 7.05% 1 month share price return has not yet reversed its steep year to date slide. However, the three year total shareholder return of 68.89% suggests the longer term growth story is still intact and momentum could rebuild as investors refocus on fundamentals.
If Blue Owl’s volatility has you reassessing your options, this is a good moment to broaden your search and explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.
With solid double digit revenue and earnings growth but a share price still well below analyst targets, the key question now is clear: is Blue Owl undervalued or is the market already pricing in its future gains?
With Blue Owl closing at $15.65 against a narrative fair value of about $20.82, the valuation debate centers on how durable its growth engine really is.
Exceptional long-term opportunities in digital infrastructure, fueled by generational investment in data centers/AI-related assets where Blue Owl has industry leadership, are catalyzing large-scale fundraising and deployment, supporting robust growth in management fees and recurring revenues over the next several years.
Want to see why this growth story supports a higher valuation? The narrative leans on ambitious revenue expansion, rising margins, and a future earnings multiple that challenges today’s pricing. Curious which assumptions really push fair value above the current share price? Explore the underlying framework to see the projections behind that view.
Result: Fair Value of $20.82 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, rapid acquisition-led expansion and any sustained slowdown in fundraising or capital inflows could pressure margins and challenge the long-term upside narrative.
Find out about the key risks to this Blue Owl Capital narrative.
Our DCF model is far more cautious, putting fair value near $0.54, which implies Blue Owl is trading at a hefty premium rather than at a discount. If cash flows do not ramp as quickly as the growth narrative suggests, could today’s price already be baking in the upside?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
OWL Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Blue Owl Capital for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 904 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.
If you see the story differently, or would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in just minutes: Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Blue Owl Capital research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
Do not stop at a single opportunity; use the Simply Wall St Screener to uncover targeted stock ideas that match your strategy before the next move passes you by.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include OWL.
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