If you are wondering whether AST SpaceMobile is still a smart buy after its huge run up, or if you are arriving just as the party ends, this breakdown will help you make sense of where the value might really be.
The stock has surged, with returns of 3.8% over the past week, 24.9% over the last month, a massive 254.4% year to date, and an eye catching 226.7% over the past year. This comes on top of a staggering 1887.0% gain over three years and 597.3% over five years.
Behind those moves, investors have been reacting to a stream of announcements around AST SpaceMobile’s plans to build a space based cellular broadband network that aims to connect standard mobile phones directly via satellites. Partnership headlines with major telecom operators signal growing industry buy in. At the same time, regulatory milestones, successful test calls from space, and capital raises to fund the constellation have sharpened both the upside narrative and the risk debate around dilution and execution.
On our framework the company scores just 2/6 on valuation checks, which means it only looks undervalued on a couple of metrics. We will walk through how different valuation approaches see AST SpaceMobile now and then finish with a more holistic way to judge whether today’s price really makes sense.
AST SpaceMobile scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth today by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to the present. For AST SpaceMobile, this 2 stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model starts from the latest twelve month free cash flow of about $1,078.1 Million in the red and then uses analyst forecasts and extrapolations to map the path to profitability.
Analysts expect free cash flow to remain negative through 2027, but the projections then flip positive, with around $243.8 Million in 2028 and $769.4 Million in 2029. Beyond the formal analyst window, Simply Wall St extrapolates much faster growth, with free cash flow rising toward roughly $4.4 Billion by 2035 as the satellite network scales.
When all those future cash flows are discounted back, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $194.42 per share. That implies the stock is trading at a 60.6% discount to this DCF estimate, which suggests the market is heavily discounting execution and funding risks.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests AST SpaceMobile is undervalued by 60.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 908 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.
Story Continues
ASTS Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025
For asset heavy or early stage businesses that are not yet profitable, the price to book ratio is often a more practical yardstick than earnings based metrics. It compares the market value of the company to the accounting value of its net assets, which helps investors gauge how much optimism is being priced in on top of the current balance sheet.
In general, higher growth potential and lower perceived risk justify a richer price to book multiple, while slower growth or higher execution risk usually warrant a discount. Against that backdrop, AST SpaceMobile is currently trading on a steep 17.36x price to book, versus a Telecom industry average of about 1.23x and a peer group closer to 7.34x, highlighting how much future success is already embedded in the share price.
Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio is a proprietary estimate of what a reasonable price to book multiple should be once you factor in the company’s growth outlook, profitability potential, risk profile, industry and size. This tends to be more informative than a simple peer or industry comparison, because it adjusts for AST SpaceMobile’s unique mix of high growth optionality and substantial execution and funding risks. Since the Fair Ratio sits meaningfully below the current 17.36x, the stock screens as aggressively priced on this lens.
Result: OVERVALUED
NasdaqGS:ASTS PB Ratio as at Dec 2025
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Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of a company’s future with the numbers behind its fair value. A Narrative is your story about a business, translated into assumptions about future revenue, earnings and profit margins, which then flow into a financial forecast and ultimately a fair value estimate. On Simply Wall St, millions of investors build and share these Narratives on the Community page, making it easy to see how different outlooks translate into different valuations, and to compare that Fair Value to the current share price to decide whether to buy, hold or sell. Narratives update dynamically as new information like news, earnings or guidance arrives, so your fair value view evolves with the company instead of staying frozen. For AST SpaceMobile, one investor might plug in very optimistic adoption and margin assumptions that justify a much higher fair value, while another might be far more conservative and arrive at a much lower number, even though they are looking at the same stock price.
Do you think there’s more to the story for AST SpaceMobile? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
NasdaqGS:ASTS 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ASTS.
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