In recent days, Alibaba Group Holding has accelerated its push into artificial intelligence and instant commerce, from seeking access to Nvidia’s newly approved H200 chips for China to expanding Cainiao–Tmall Supermarket fulfilment so that Taobao Shangou orders can arrive in as little as four hours across 31 mainland cities.
At the same time, Alibaba’s open-source Qwen models gaining traction with partners like Meta and its rising AI-related cloud revenues highlight how the company is trying to reposition itself as a core infrastructure provider for the next wave of digital services.
We’ll now examine how Alibaba’s move to secure Nvidia’s H200 chips could influence its AI‑driven cloud growth narrative and investment case.
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To own Alibaba today, you need to believe that its AI focused cloud platform and core China commerce assets can, over time, outweigh near term profit pressure and geopolitical uncertainty. The H200 export approval is directionally helpful for its AI cloud story, but chip access remains only one piece of the key short term catalyst, which is whether AI related cloud growth can offset heavy spending in quick commerce and AI infrastructure without prolonging margin strain.
The expansion of Cainiao and Tmall Supermarket fulfilment for Taobao Shangou, enabling four hour delivery in 31 cities, ties directly into that catalyst by showing where a lot of that spending is going. It reinforces that Alibaba is committing real capital to instant commerce at the same time as it pushes Qwen powered cloud services, which increases execution risk if user growth or order density falls short of what is needed to ease losses.
Yet investors should also factor in how prolonged losses in quick commerce could pressure Alibaba’s margins and cash flows if…
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Alibaba Group Holding’s narrative projects CN¥1260.3 billion revenue and CN¥171.1 billion earnings by 2028.
Uncover how Alibaba Group Holding’s forecasts yield a $197.98 fair value, a 32% upside to its current price.
BABA 1-Year Stock Price Chart
73 members of the Simply Wall St Community currently place Alibaba’s fair value between US$107.09 and US$266.34, with views spread across this full range. Set against heavy AI and quick commerce investment that is already weighing on profitability, this dispersion shows why you may want to compare several viewpoints before deciding how Alibaba’s long term bets could affect its performance.
Explore 73 other fair value estimates on Alibaba Group Holding – why the stock might be worth as much as 78% more than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include BABA.
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