PURCHASE, N.Y.—Global real GDP growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026, a slight dip from an estimated 3.2% in 2025, as moderating inflation, shifting trade patterns and continued investment in artificial intelligence shape the next phase of the global economic cycle, according to the Mastercard Economics Institute’s Economic Outlook 2026.
“The overall story is one of continued, but divergent, expansion in the global economy,” said Michelle Meyer, Mastercard’s chief economist. She said that while 2025 was dominated by headline-driven forces such as inflation, tariffs, tax cuts and AI, 2026 will reflect the real economic impact of those policies and investments. Continued AI spending, interest rate cuts and government stimulus are expected to support overall growth despite persistent market uncertainty.
The report projects global inflation at 3.4% in 2026, down from 3.9% in 2025, while U.S. GDP growth is expected to rise to 2.2% from 2%, supported in part by tax incentives aimed at boosting manufacturing and research investment. China’s growth is forecast to slow to 4.5% from 4.8%, reflecting weaker U.S. demand amid elevated trade tensions, even as China deepens ties with emerging markets.
For financial institutions, the outlook highlights key forces shaping credit demand, trade finance and payments volumes, including global trade realignment, sustained AI investment and the growing digitization of small businesses. Mastercard noted that small firms have been more exposed to U.S. tariffs than larger companies, but are increasingly turning to digital tools to improve efficiency. In the U.S., 44% of new card-accepting businesses in 2024 were online-only, up 20 percentage points since 2019, signaling a major shift in the small-business landscape.
Section: Standard
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Copyright Year: 2025
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URL: https://www.cutoday.info/Fresh-Today/Mastercard-Forecast-U.S.-Growth-Accelerates-In-2026-As-Global-Economy-Enters-New-Phase