3h agoTue 23 Dec 2025 at 2:04amMarket snapshotASX 200: +0.9% to 8,780 points
Australian dollar: +0.1% to 66.62 US centsWall Street: Dow Jones (+0.5%), S&P 500 (+0.6%), Nasdaq (+0.5%) Europe: DAX (+0.02%), FTSE (-0.3%), Stoxx 600 (-0.1%)Spot gold: +0.8% to $US4,481/ounceOil (Brent crude): -0.1% to $US61.97/barrelIron ore: -0.1% to $US104.90/tonneBitcoin: -0.1% at $US88,418
ASX 200: +0.9% to 8,780 pointsPrices current around 1pm AEDT.
8m agoTue 23 Dec 2025 at 5:23am
Cracker of a day on ASX heading into Christmas Eve trading
The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index has closed 1.1% higher at 8,795 index points.
It means the index is now just 3.5% from the record highs we saw in October.
There are several moments I can think of this year when you could be forgiven for thinking the market was heading for a serious meltdown.
It’s proven incredibly resilient.
The Real Estate sector today was up 3%, while the Financials gained 1.5% (no doubt helped by CBA’s 2% gain), and Mining stocks rose 0.8%.
22m agoTue 23 Dec 2025 at 5:10am
MA Security Services enters voluntary administration: reports
Nine is reporting Melbourne-headquartered MA Services Group has collapsed.
32m agoTue 23 Dec 2025 at 5:00amRBA ‘under pressure’ to hike in February: JPMorgan
This note from JP Morgan analysing the RBA’s minutes today is worth reading.
Here’s an excerpt:
“… we still think the near-term policy path will remain closely tethered to the quarterly CPI releases, which, for now, offer a better guide to the underlying momentum in inflation.”
“Based on the minutes and language in Governor Bullock’s press conference, we suspect 1% q/q trimmed mean in 4Q (repeating 3Q’s outcome) would put the board under pressure to hike in February.
“But in our reading of the monthlies, inflation is still tracking short of that (0.8%q/q) and is not clearly challenging the Bank’s standing forecasts.
“We retain our view for the RBA to remain sidelined in 2026.”
47m agoTue 23 Dec 2025 at 4:44am
CBA insists it’s the most generous
It’s worth noting that towards the end of CBA’s media release on refunding low-income customers, it reminds the public it will end up offering more money to low-income customers than other banks combined.
This is despite initially offering up less.
“Once payments have been made, we expect CBA’s combined goodwill payments to be higher in dollar value than the cumulative payments of any other bank in response to ASIC’s Reports 785 and 811.”
59m agoTue 23 Dec 2025 at 4:32am
Show me the money
Surely if ASIC has found CBA customers “incorrectly charged” CBA has to refund the money under consumer law. I don’t understand how they have any option ?
– Phillip
Hi Phillip,
CBA boss Matt Comyn has simply made the point that it’s not as simple as reimbursing customers — the money needs to come from somewhere.
That said, the CBA has managed to find some cash to assist with low-income customers.
1h agoTue 23 Dec 2025 at 4:28am
ASX surges ahead of Christmas break
Trading desks across the country may readying to winddown over the Christmas break, beginning early tomorrow afternoon, but the bids are coming in thick and fast today.
The S&P/ASX 200 is up 98 points or 1.13% to 8,798.40 and has set a new 20-day high (at 3:30pm AEDT).
The top performing stocks are Goodman Group, up 8.6% and Droneshield, up 6.6%.
1h agoTue 23 Dec 2025 at 4:23am
Thank, Natty
Hey DT 👋 Sorry I’ve been missing. I hope you guys have a great holiday season ❤️
– Natty
Natty, my friend, you’re a treasure.
Happy Christmas.
DT
1h agoTue 23 Dec 2025 at 4:22amCBA resisted refunding low-income customers
The Commonwealth Bank’s chief executive, Mat Comyn, defended charging fees to low-income customers when he fronted a parliamentary committee hearing last month.
In July ASIC found the bank, and its subsidiary Bankwest, charged about $270 million in fees to about 2.2 million low-income customers over five years.
Those fees included account-keeping, dishonour and overdraw charges.
Comyn made the case in parliament that reimbursing customers would be an “appropriation” of shareholder money.
That is, why would he take money from Peter to pay back Paul.
He also rejected ASIC’s finding that every dollar charged was “excessive”.
But, today, it’s backflipped and footed some of the bill to low-income customers.
In theory you could argue today the CBA has “appropriated” a further $68 million of shareholders’ funds for low-income customer refunds.
It’s worth noting the CBA share price is … up 2% at 3:20pm AEDT.
1h agoTue 23 Dec 2025 at 4:03amCBA’s ‘goodwill’ only goes so far: CHOICE
The CBA has announced it will make further payments to low-income customers charged excessive fees.
The additional $68 million in payments brings the total to $93 million.
The alarm was raised by ASIC earlier this year in its Better and Beyond report.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia charged approximately $270 million in excessive fees to 2.2 million low-income customers, as identified in ASIC’s July report.
Consumer advocates have spoken up about CBA’s announcement.
“While this is well short of the full $270 million CHOICE has been calling for, it is still a major backflip from CBA’s original position of ‘individual goodwill adjustments on a case by case basis,” CHOICE’s Morgan Campbell said.
“This isn’t the full amount of unfair fees but it’s a big win for thousands of CommBank customers on low incomes.
“Commbank should never have charged these fees in the first place, and we shouldn’t have had to drag them kicking and screaming to make these refunds.”
1h agoTue 23 Dec 2025 at 3:36amCBA announces further $68m in ‘goodwill payments’ to refund account fees
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) earlier this year found the Commonwealth Bank had incorrectly charged low-income earners on Centrelink payments a total of $270 million in fees.
“In early February 2026, CBA will commence making further goodwill payments to the value of approximately $68 million to relevant concession customers who have incurred unusually high fees. Customers don’t need to do anything — we’ll contact eligible concession customers,” CBA said in a statement.
It means CBA’s total goodwill payments will rise to approximately $93 million, including the approximately $25 million already paid in response to ASIC’s Better Banking for Indigenous Consumers Report.
2h agoTue 23 Dec 2025 at 3:10am
Happy new economic year, RBA minutes suggest
The RBA also seems to be saying, based on the release of the December minutes, that the recent lift in business investment will be “sustained”.
This, it reckons, is based on more confidence in the global macroeconomic backdrop.
It’s a far cry from the financial market wobbles experience in April when US President Donald Trump unveiled his so-called Liberation Day tariffs.
“Members pointed to the various signs that suggested the lift in private demand would be sustained, including upward revisions to firms’ capital expenditure expectations,” the RBA minutes noted.
“Members discussed the continued presence of downside risks emanating from the world economy and global asset valuations, but noted that global growth and trade had proven materially stronger than had been expected.
“Moreover, the risks to the outlook no longer appeared as pronounced as earlier in the year.”
2h agoTue 23 Dec 2025 at 2:53am
Economists alert for market dislocation
Hi David, keen to have your thoughts on the actions of the JCB? I was expecting some volatility but it looks like most have just shrugged it off.
– Brian
Hi Brian,
A market economist told me yesterday the Bank of Japan’s actions were so well-flagged, after it messed up its previous rate hike, that there was little for the market to respond to.
That said, the view from market participants is that Kazuo Ueda was less hawkish than expected.
Despite expected fiscal largesse, the yen has been decidedly weaker against many currencies, especially the euro, and that’s another indication that the JCB is hesitant about further interest rate hikes.
The key point being, though, that interest rates, especially the 10-Year JGB yield, can keep rising gradually from here without too much of a problem.
But if something spooks the markets, especially a surprising bullish Japanese macroeconomic signal, a dislocated Japanese bond market, at these levels, would be … well, I’ll let you ponder that.
Hope that makes sense.
DT
2h agoTue 23 Dec 2025 at 2:45am
Market liquidity
I would have thought the pub was a good spot for a trader these days. Get it right and the champagne is on hand – get it wrong and you can drown your sorrows !
– Phillip
G’day Phil,
The pub is definitely the more liquid market.
Here at the ABC, we encourage all bond traders to drink responsibly 😉
DT
2h agoTue 23 Dec 2025 at 2:45am
Jobs market remains ‘a little tight’: RBA
Crucial to whether there is an interest rate hike in 2026 is whether the jobs market remains tight.
If the unemployment rate, however, rises significantly, interest rate cuts may be back on the table.
These RBA December Monetary Policy Board meeting minutes excerpts help frame one’s thinking on the issue:
“Information from business surveys and liaison continued to suggest that a significant share of firms were experiencing difficulty sourcing labour.”
“Members were presented with some refinements to how labour market indicators were being incorporated into the staff’s assessment of conditions relative to full employment.
“These refinements included: reviewing which labour market indicators provided the best information to assess full employment; improving the way in which cyclical movements are identified; and strengthening the methodology for aggregating this information to inform an assessment of the extent of labour market tightness.
“Members noted that the results from this new analysis provided additional support for the staff’s existing assessment that labour market conditions remained a little tight, rather than changing it significantly.”
3h agoTue 23 Dec 2025 at 2:30am
RBA cautious about new CPI toy
If memory serves, RBA governor Michele Bullock said “yay!” at a press conference in anticipation of the new, more detailed, ABC Monthly CPI report.
While it has arrived, and the RBA is clearly reading it, the board indicated in its December meeting minutes that it is going to continue treating the information in the report with a degree of caution.
“Members noted that it would take time to understand the properties of the new monthly CPI data.
“Furthermore, as the November Statement had set out, monthly data are inherently more volatile than quarterly data, and the difficulty of seasonally adjusting some components at a monthly frequency (owing to their short history) would make the trimmed mean and other measures of the underlying monthly inflation rate less reliable for a period.
“As a result, the staff would continue to rely primarily on the quarterly CPI – which has a much longer history and well-understood properties – for a while to assess the underlying momentum in inflation.
“Members noted that inflation data for the December quarter would be available prior to the February meeting.”
My guess is that both hotter-than-expected monthly and quarterly inflation data will secure a February interest rate hike, but if either data set contradicts the other, there may be a pause for more thought.
3h agoTue 23 Dec 2025 at 1:53am
Market uncertainty
It was not just JGBs pricing lower yesterday or recovering today. There was a sell off across Europe bonds as well.
What do you think about the arbitrary zeroing of most US CPI categories last week for October and November, as well as the market’s bizarre reaction to buy into that in the last three or so days?
– Andrew
Hi again,
Confused about the bond market, I recently called a senior bond trader to seek his insights.
He picked up the phone and told me he couldn’t really talk.
“Why”, I said, expecting him to say he was in the middle of a crucial trade.
“I’m at the pub”, he replied.
3h agoTue 23 Dec 2025 at 1:51am
Comments welcome
Hey DT, that was a nice try to correct you on the gold price. Noone quotes prices in AUD in the first instance. Weird.
– Andrew
G’day Andrew,
We just love people havin’ a crack 😉
Hope you have a nice Christmas.
DT
3h agoTue 23 Dec 2025 at 1:49am
RBA rate hike not a done deal
It’s important to note that while the December RBA minutes pave the way for a potential 2026 rate hike, or two, it’s not a fait accompli.
Here’s an excerpt from the document that helps illustrate that point:
“… members judged that it was too early to determine whether inflation would be more persistent than they had assumed in November, given the uncertainties about the reliability of the signal from the new data series at present.”
“If financial conditions were still slightly restrictive, and evidence emerged that a material part of the apparent renewed pick-up in inflationary pressures reflected volatile or temporary factors, then holding the cash rate at its current level for some time may be sufficient to keep the economy close to balance.”
3h agoTue 23 Dec 2025 at 1:35amRBA eyes interest rate hike: minutes show
The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s December Monetary Policy Board meeting are a challenging read.
It’s not because the document is too long or complicated, rather it’s clear the RBA itself is uncertain whether the recent pick-up in inflation will be sustained.
If the answer to that is “yes”, interest rates will rise in 2026, but if it’s “no”, the cash rate will remain unchanged.
Here’s the relevant excerpt from the minutes:
“Members expressed their concerns about the recent trend in inflation, the risk it could be more persistent than currently assessed and the potential for that persistence, if it crystallised, to contribute to an environment in which price increases are more readily accepted and households’ purchasing power comes under further pressure.”
“They noted that the November forecast already projected underlying inflation to remain above the midpoint of the target range until 2027, albeit on the assumption that the cash rate followed the November market path, which envisaged further easing in monetary policy.
“Members noted that the economy appeared to be operating with a degree of excess demand and it was not clear whether financial conditions were sufficiently restrictive to bring aggregate demand and supply back to balance.
“Members discussed the circumstances in which, should these trends persist, an increase in the cash rate might need to be considered at some point in the coming year.”