Nvidia (NVDA) just got a meaningful tailwind, with Washington reversing course and greenlighting H200 AI chip exports to approved Chinese customers starting around mid February 2026, potentially reopening a multi billion dollar revenue stream.
See our latest analysis for NVIDIA.
The policy shift has already nudged sentiment, with Nvidia’s share price at about $183.69 and a 32.81% year to date share price return, while its 5 year total shareholder return of 1,327.96% shows the longer term AI narrative still very much intact.
If this H200 news has you thinking beyond just one name, it is a good moment to explore high growth tech and AI stocks for other potential AI infrastructure winners.
With Wall Street targets sitting roughly 38 percent above today’s price and Nvidia still growing revenue and profits at 26 percent annually, investors face a familiar dilemma: is this a rare AI leader on sale, or is the market already discounting years of future growth?
With the narrative fair value sitting well above Nvidia’s last close of $183.69, the story positions today’s price as leaving meaningful upside on the table.
Commonly, public misconceptions mislead the market to poorly represent a company’s true worth. The saying says “if it sounds too good to be true, it’s most likely not true” rings in my ear when evaluating the future of NVIDIA.
Want to see why this outlook still points to strong upside, despite slower projected growth? The narrative leans on powerful margins and a premium future earnings multiple. Curious how those moving parts combine into one bold valuation call? The full breakdown reveals the exact assumptions driving that fair value line.
Result: Fair Value of $235 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, slower AI spending or tougher export rules could compress margins and delay growth and may challenge the idea that today’s price still offers clear upside.
Find out about the key risks to this NVIDIA narrative.
While the narrative sees NVDA as 21.8% undervalued, our price to earnings work paints a more cautious picture. The current 45x P/E is richer than the US semiconductor sector at 36.7x, though still below peers at 60.3x and a fair ratio of 58.3x. This leaves room for both upside and de rating risk if sentiment turns.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
NasdaqGS:NVDA PE Ratio as at Dec 2025
If you see the numbers differently or want to dig into the details yourself, you can shape a full Nvidia story in just minutes with Do it your way.
A great starting point for your NVIDIA research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
Before you move on, consider locking in a few fresh leads from our screeners so you are not relying on just one AI champion to drive your portfolio.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include NVDA.
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