Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
As uncertainty swirls around Anglo American PLC’s attempt to buy it, TD Cowen analyst Craig Hutchison lowered his earnings forecast for Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK-B-T) to reflect reduced throughput projections and long-term recovery rates at Quebrada Blanca as well as a higher capital expenditure projection.
“We updated our QB estimates to reflect the cautious language from Teck’s QB action plan,” he explained. “We decreased throughput estimates and raised capex for 2H/25 and 2026 in anticipation of higher a tailings-related impact. Furthermore, our long-term recovery is now 88 per cent vs. our prior 88-92-per-cent estimate. Our QB production estimates for 2025 and 2026 are now 206kt (guidance 210-230kt) and 245kt (guidance 280-310kt), respectively.”
In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Hutchison said the federal government has set a “high bar” for approval of the deal
Carney told Anglo American to move headquarters to Canada for Teck deal approval, sources say
“Prime Minister Carney has reported that any Anglo-Teck merger would at a minimum require the head office to be located in Canada,” he said. “In our opinion, this effectively rules out other large-cap base metal producers from making a bid for Teck. We also see a low probability that a Canadian gold company makes an offer as Agnico Eagle was very clear at a recent conference that they are not considering a bid for Teck. While there may be a very limited pool of buyers for Teck, there is a possibility for interlopers to bid on Anglo. “From Teck’s perspective, we see Anglo as the most logical buyer and note their commitment to move their headquarters to Canada in perpetuity. We also note that both companies have made significant commitments to critical mineral investments in Canada.
“Industry Minister Joly believes the companies must go further to prove the deal benefits Canada. Joly wants to see more of a long-term lens on the deal, specifically noting job creation. Conversations between Anglo, Teck, and the Canadian government have taken place, but Joly will meet with management next week.”
The analyst did emphasize the “unique synergies” posed by the integration of QB with the Collahuasi hole, which Anglo owns a 44-per-cent stake in, believing the combination “provides an excellent turnaround story for Teck’s top-producing copper mine.”
How the merger of Teck’s and Anglo’s Chilean copper mines will work – or not work
“The integration of the two distinct mines is a key opportunity to process high-grade ore from Collahuasi at QB’s state-of-the-art facility,” he said. “The ownership structure is to be determined (whether via a new JV with all six shareholders or a commercial agreement), but Teck finds the opportunity too compelling to pass, so they would find a way to integrate the two mines regardless of structure.”
“The company expects US$800-million in pre-tax annual synergies by the end of the fourth year. Synergies include $490-million in procurement, $210-million in corporate business overhead, and $100mm in marketing revenue. These synergies will require a one-off cash cost of US$700mm. The company also expects US$1.4-billion in EBITDA synergies on a 100-per-cent basis (US$0.7-billion attributable) between QB and Collahuasi from 2030-2049. These synergies will require an investment of US$1.9-billion.”
Maintaining his “buy” rating for Teck shares, Mr. Hutchison raised his target to $63 from$60. The average target on the Street is $59.22, according to LSEG data.
“Our rating and price target reflect Teck’s ramp-up of the Tier-1 QB2 copper mine and its organic pipeline of brownfield and greenfield copper projects,” he said. The completed EVR transaction has transformed the company into a copper-focused miner with a strengthened balance sheet to deliver on its project pipeline in the near term.”
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Surprised by recent share price appreciation, National Bank Financial analyst Adam Shine thinks Quebecor Inc. (QBR.B-T) appears “due for a bit of a pause ahead of the next data points and catalysts to help drive its next potential move higher.”
“We upgraded Quebecor on Aug. 11 following a pullback in the stock of more than 12 per cent over the prior six weeks from the close of 2Q to its reporting,“ he said. ”We didn’t expect such a quick bounce back to new record highs over the past five weeks. While management has done some recent marketing and back-to-school (BTS) for wireless was deemed by carriers to be relatively stable compared to the prior two years, there’s not been much other news to note.
“Beyond what the wireless sector has exhibited during BTS, Quebecor has shown more discipline in cable where it has not chased loading over the past three quarters and during 2Q it eased up on its volume chase in wireless to deliver a better-than-expected year-over-year decline in ARPU [average revenue per user] (down 2.7 per cent after falling 4.5 per cent in 1Q) which grew 4 cents quarter-over-quarter as a notable turning point post-Freedom. Inasmuch as Freedom has driven market share gains, most of this has come in Ontario, with Quebecor still not aggressively loading out West, pushing a bundle with Internet or leveraging Fizz to any degree outside of Quebec.”
Mr. Shine now thinks there is “more to be done” in each of those areas, which he predicts “should help stimulate evolving growth” at the company. That led him to increase his net asset value projections for both its Cable and Wireless businesses.
With those changes, he raised his target for Quebecor shares by $3 to $45, exceeding the $44.16 average on the Street, with his “outperform” rating.
“We forecast Telecom capex to rise gradually from the guide of $650-million in 2025 to $700-million in 2029, FCF to remain above $1-billion, and leverage to decline at least 20-30 basis points per year, subject to ongoing share repurchases in the absence of any material M&A opportunities,” he added. “If the NCIB were to repurchase 4 million shares per year, leverage would hit 2.5 times in 2027 and under 2.0 times in 2029.”
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National Bank Financial analyst Alex Terentiew said Highland Silver Corp.’s (HSLV-T) second set of drill results from the Bonita target at its high grade San Luis gold-silver project in Peru continue to define new mineralization, boosting confidence in his forecast.
“As drilling continues to define new zones of mineralization at Bonita, confirming our expectations for resource growth, we have adjusted our forecasts to reflect HSLV operating on a completely standalone basis, rather than pursuing a toll milling scenario,“ he said. ”A toll milling scenario, we think is the ideal option (fastest, lowest risk and lowest cost) if the project remains small. But given the upside potential, we now think a standalone mining and processing scenario is more likely. We have therefore added incremental capital costs to our estimates, but also added ore processing costs, while removing the toll costs.”
With that growth, Mr. Terentiew expects the Toronto-based company will repurchase 2 per cent of its net smelter return (NSR) rights owned by SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM-T) for US$15-million, as per its option agreement.
“As a result of these changes, we now include additional capital being raised over the coming years, but have also raised our assumed equity issuance price to reflect the strong (up 48 per cent) share price performance since we launched coverage on June 12, 2025,” he said. “We continue to assume construction commences in Q1/27 and with first production in 2028.”
“As we noted in our initiating coverage report on June 12 (Silver Will Keep Shining in 2025), Highlander is evaluating the possibility of acquiring or making an agreement with a nearby mill (or mills) to process the ore from San Luis, and our valuation at the time was based on this approach. Given that drilling results from the Bonita target continue to support our expectation for resource growth, we have refined our forecasts to reflect a standalone mine and mill scenario, with Highlander Silver acquiring a nearby mill prior to commencing construction of a mine.”
Continuing to assume construction in the first quarter of 2027 and first production in 2028, Mr. Terentiew raised his target to $4 from $3.50, maintaining his “outperform” rating. The current average is $3.80.
“As a result of our model changes, our NAVPS increases 10 per cent to $4.76 (prev. $4.32), while our target moves higher to $4.00 (prev. $3.50),“ he explained. ”Our production estimates drop in the early years of the mine life, while moving slightly higher over the later years. Although purchasing a mill requires some upfront capital costs, we estimate a rough US$1.25/oz reduction in operating costs, with the inclusion of a self-owned mill and processing costs more than offsetting the high tolling charges we previously assumed … Compounding the positive impact of our higher NAVPS estimate, we have also raised our valuation multiple. Given the strength in gold and silver prices, Highlander Silver’s exceptionally high grades at Ayelén of 24.4 g/t Au and 579 g/t Ag, and the scarcity of high-quality companies in the silver sector, we have increased our valuation multiple on Highlander Silver to 0.8 times NAV, up from 0.7 times previously.”
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RBC Capital Markets analyst Daniel Perlin sees “early proof points” that Lightspeed Commerce Inc.’s (LSPD-N, LSPD-T) “transformation is taking hold” with accelerating location growth in its key markets in the first quarter of its fiscal 2026.
“At its Capital Markets Day, Lightspeed laid out its transformative strategic priorities across growing customer locations in its growth engine markets, expanding SaaS ARPU [average revenue per user], and improving its adj. EBTIDA and free cash flow,” he said. “Management reiterated that it is still in early days of realizing these initiatives, with the F1Q26 showing just some of its GTM improvements and the SaaS opportunity, which provides support for its medium-term targets provided at Capital Markets Day.”
In a research note reviewing recent investor meetings with Lightspeed founder and CEO Dax Dasilva, Mr. Perlin also pointed to strength in its “go-to-market, as it ramps on its targeted 150 sales reps, resulting in a doubling in outbound bookings year-over-year” as well as “support for durable SaaS revenue and ARPU growth via new location adds, price increases, and the rollout of incremental software modules.”
“Management was clear that its go-to market motion is deeply focused on accelerating growth within its core growth engine markets of North American Retail and European Hospitality, which in F1Q26 grew 5 per cent year-over-year, compared to 3 per cent the quarter before,” he added. “Key to this success and to achieving the targeted three-year customer location CAGR [compound annual growth rate] of 10–15 is the ramping of its outbound sales motion, for which it had 130 sales reps at the end of the quarter and a target of 150 reps by the end of the year, and approximately half already fully ramped to productivity (takes 6 months to ramp). We view the ramping of the outbound sales team as the driver of new location growth, and based on early success displayed in F1Q26, gives us conviction in management hitting their targets. Within the growth markets, the company noted that its growth comes evenly from new business formations, competitive wins from other modern platforms, and customers shifting from legacy solutions.
“SaaS to benefit from new location adds and product rollouts. SaaS revenue and ARPU have been key metrics of debate by investors, and with the potential for meaningful acceleration in new location adds combined with new software module releases, we see a path for durable SaaS ARPU growth. Additionally, LSPD account managers had previously been focused on driving customers to attach Lightspeed Payments vs software, which has now normalized to be more evenly distributed, and we note that when customers have Lightspeed Payments attached, they can also attach more software modules they previously could not have, such as Data Insights. ”
Mr. Perlin reaffirmed his “outperform” rating and US$15 target for the Montreal-based company’s shares. The current average on the Street is US$14.50.
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In other analyst actions:
* Scotia Capital’s Phil Hardie upgraded TMX Group Ltd. (X-T) to “sector outperform” from “sector perform” and raised his Street-high target to $70 from $65. The average is $61.79.
* Bernstein’s Zhihan Ma initiated coverage of Dollarama Inc. (DOL-T) with an “outperform” rating and $220 target, exceeding the $203.73 average on the Street.
* CIBC’s Kevin Chiang cut his TFI International Inc. (TFII-N, TFII-T) target to US$109 from US$110 with an “outperformer” rating. The average is $115.78.