The main driver is nationwide infrastructure development. Public investment plans for 2026 are expected to increase by about 26%, which could lift economic growth by 1.6 percentage points, according to Can Van Luc, chief economist at the state-owned Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV).
This is reflected in projects such as a new airport near Ho Chi Minh City due to open in 2026, while a China-backed rail project in the north has already begun construction.
Even so, legal reforms and cutting red tape are still seen as crucial to sustaining investment in the next phase. Can Van Luc said more than 2,000 investment projects remain held up by unresolved issues.
Meanwhile, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts Thailand’s real GDP will grow by only 1.5% in 2026, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous year.
High household debt is also weighing on domestic consumption, tourism has been slow to recover, and US import tariffs are adding pressure on manufacturing. In recent years, Suzuki Motor has exited four-wheel vehicle production in Thailand, while Honda Motor has scaled back output.