For long-suffering movie theaters, salvation always seems to be just around the corner.
In 2026, many of the biggest film franchises in history are returning to screens. It’s a squadron of high- profile spinoffs and sequels to everything from “The Avengers” (with Robert Downey Jr. and Chris Evans back in spandex) to “Star Wars,” with a smattering of Mario and Luigi and Buzz and Woody in between.
But since COVID upended the movie business, the box office has never been harder to predict. Last year, Marvel, once the most consistent hit–maker in Hollywood, saw one hyped-up superhero movie after another fail to connect with audiences, while auteur-driven films like “Sinners” and anime offerings like “Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle” became some of 2025’s most unlikely successes.
So, with that caveat out of the way, we’re staring into our crystal ball and going out on a limb to predict the movies that will struggle or soar over the next 12 months.
Sure Things
Matt Damon in “The Odyssey“
Universal Pictures
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (Universal)
Release date: April 3
Thrill factor: Generations of gamers have traveled to the Mushroom Kingdom, a familiarity that helped turn “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” into a billion-dollar smash. The follow-up should get a similar reception, particularly as it has the spring box office more or less to itself.
Chill factor: Video game adaptations like “A Minecraft Movie” and “Sonic the Hedgehog” have been one of the only genres that have reliably worked. Could we be nearing oversaturation?
Verdict: Who are we kidding? The Nintendo brand is king, and those mustachioed siblings are its most beloved ambassadors.
Toy Story 5 (Disney)
Release date: June 19
Thrill factor: “Toy Story” represents Pixar at its best, and this installment — which confronts the reality that children would rather play with screens than dolls — feels like a timely reason to revisit the animated world of talking toys.
Chill factor: Maybe the tech-forward premise will hit too close to home for parents who prefer to park their kids in front of iPads at restaurants?
Verdict: Woody and Buzz might be afraid of smart tablets, but they needn’t worry about box office grosses. “Toy Story 5” will be the biggest family film of the year.
The Odyssey (Universal)
Release date: July 17
Thrill factor: Christopher Nolan turned the life story of J. Robert Oppenheimer into a silver-screen sensation. The Trojan War sounds a lot more commercial, and it helps that the actors filling out the tunics include A-listers like Matt Damon, Tom Holland and Zendaya.
Chill factor: Homer? During the summer? Sounds like homework.
Verdict: July belongs to Nolan, who has debuted blockbusters such as “The Dark Knight” and “Dunkirk” at the height of popcorn season. “The Odyssey” will join the club.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony)
Release date: July 31
Thrill factor: Tom Holland is dusting off his Spidey suit for the first time since 2021’s “No Way Home” became a bonanza with $1.9 billion. That film ended on a massive cliff-hanger, meaning a lot of people have been waiting to see what happens after Peter Parker makes the difficult decision to erase his identity from the world.
Chill factor: “No Way Home” became a cinematic event in part because multiversal shenanigans allowed two prior Spider-Men, Andrew Garfield and Tobey Maguire, to save the day with Holland. Will hype be as high with just one Spidey on-screen?
Verdict: Marvel might be waning in box office popularity, but Spider-Man remains on the comic book A-list.
Safe Bets
Baby Yoda in “The Mandalorian and Grogu”
LUCASFILM
The Mandalorian and Grogu (Disney)
The Mandalorian and Grogu — Disney
Release date: May 22
Thrill factor: The last “Star Wars” movie, 2019’s billion-dollar blockbuster “The Rise of Skywalker,” was released seven long years ago. In the time since, Baby Yoda (né the Child né Grogu) has become a household name through the very popular Disney+ series “The Mandalorian.”
Chill factor: Lucasfilm has struggled for what feels like eons to get a theatrical release off the ground. Meanwhile, Disney+ has become the go-to destination for all things set in a galaxy far, far away with shows ranging from “The Book of Boba Fett” and “Ahsoka” to “Andor.” Do audiences still associate “Star Wars” with the cinematic experience, or is it a franchise they now prefer to watch at home?
Verdict: “The Mandalorian and Grogu” will benefit from goodwill and brand recognition. However, not every “Star Wars” spinoff will feel the box office Force.
Avengers: Doomsday (Disney)
Release date: Dec. 18
Thrill factor: Downey and Evans return to the MCU, bringing the two mightiest heroes back into the fold. They’re joined by fan-favorite characters from “The X-Men” and “The Fantastic Four” in a true “the gang’s all here” extravaganza.
Chill factor: Superhero fatigue is real, and Marvel can’t seem to shake it. The studio’s last few films — “Thunderbolts,” “Captain America: Brave New World” and “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” — all disappointed at the box office.
Verdict: Absence makes the heart grow fonder. It’s been six years since the last “Avengers” adventures, and Evans and Downey’s presence will make this sequel a bona fide event.
Verity (Amazon MGM)
Release date: Oct. 2
Thrill factor: Colleen Hoover might be the new box office whisperer after “It Ends With Us” became a sleeper success for Sony, and “Regretting You” was one of Paramount’s only 2025 releases to turn a theatrical profit. “Verity,” which follows a struggling writer hired to complete a popular book series after the potentially unhinged author becomes injured, promises deliciously campy performances from stars Dakota Johnson and Anne Hathaway.
Chill factor: Adult-oriented fare is, alas, always a risk in post-pandemic times.
Verdict: Twisty thrillers are fun to watch with crowds, so “Verity” will become a breakout with women in the vein of “The Housemaid” or “A Simple Favor.”
Question Marks
Ryan Gosling in “Project Hail Mary”
Screenshot courtesy YouTube/Amazon MGM
Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM)
Release date: March 20
Thrill factor: Phil Lord and Christopher Miller are returning to the director’s chair for the first time since 2014’s “22 Jump Street.” With “Project Hail Mary,” the very funny filmmakers team up with the endlessly charming Ryan Gosling on a sci-fi adventure about an amnesiac astronaut tasked with saving the world from Armageddon.
Chill factor: Amazon MGM doesn’t have a track record of launching original properties, and with a hefty $150 million budget, “Project Hail Mary” needs to pack ’em in to justify its price tag.
Verdict: Gosling, a versatile actor who should have won an Oscar for his performance of “I’m Just Ken” at the Academy Awards ceremony, isn’t a bankable star. After all, his 2024 action comedy “The Fall Guy” misfired theatrically despite great reviews. That means quality won’t be enough to get people to multiplexes. It’s up to the studio’s marketing department to turn the film into a must-see cinematic event.
Disclosure Day (Universal)
Release date: June 12
Thrill factor: For decades, Steven Spielberg has been synonymous with blockbuster entertainment. Now, the man who made “Indiana Jones” and “E.T.” returns to spectacle-style filmmaking with an alien-invasion adventure.
Chill factor: Does the old master still have it? Spielberg’s spent most of the past 20 years directing Oscar bait like “Bridge of Spies” and “Lincoln.” Has he outgrown his populist roots?
Verdict: The title sounds like a bad airplane novel, but the trailer delivers plenty of thrills. It’s just hard to convince people to turn out for something that isn’t based on a game or a known property.
Clayface (Warner Bros.)
Release date: Sept. 11
Thrill factor: With comic book adaptations, audiences are fine with familiar faces but clearly aren’t settling for more of the same story. In that respect, “Clayface,” a body-horror film about a struggling actor with a disfigured face who takes drastic measures to transform his body into clay, feels vastly different from “Brave New World,” “Thunderbolts” and the family-friendly “Superman.”
Chill factor: Has anyone, on this planet or any other, ever heard of Clayface?
Verdict: James Gunn and Peter Safran may have revived the DCU with “Superman,” but not every comic book character is worthy of the big-screen treatment.
Practical Magic 2 (Warner Bros)
Release date: Sept. 18
Thrill factor: Nearly 30 years after the first “Practical Magic” became a cult hit on home entertainment — remember VHS? — Sandra Bullock and Nicole Kidman reunite for another supernatural rom-com.
Chill factor: It’s worth noting that “Practical Magic” flopped when it was released in 1998. Given Bullock and Kidman’s price tags, Warners is probably banking on them casting a stronger spell on moviegoers in 2025.
Verdict: Nostalgia is powerful — just look at other long-gestating sequels like “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice.” But this follow-up feels random. Besides Bullock and Kidman’s agents, who’s asking for this?
Biggest Risks
Jessie Buckley as Frankenstein’s monster’s betrothed in “The Bride”
©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection
The Bride! (Warner Bros.)
Release date: March 6
Thrill factor: Audiences have been flipping for auteur-driven horror films such as Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” and Robert Eggers’ “Nosferatu.” Maggie Gyllenhaal, who impressed with her directorial debut, “The Lost Daughter,” is offering up a bold vision with her steampunk take on “Frankenstein.”
Chill factor: Guillermo del Toro just did his own thing with Mary Shelley with last fall’s “Frankenstein.” Some stories don’t need to be revived again and again.
Verdict: The buzz on the $80 million production has been frightful. Unless critics swoon, audiences aren’t showing up to see this undead couple in action.
Hoppers (Disney)
Release date: March 6
Thrill factor: Family films have, for the most part, been all the rage. And the most recent animated adventure was December’s “SpongeBob” sequel, so “Hoppers” should benefit from pent-up demand.
Chill factor: Pixar hasn’t successfully launched a new animated film since 2017’s musical hit “Coco.” Even last year’s positively reviewed “Elio” cratered at the box office. Plus, the plot — revolving around scientists who can transfer human consciousness to robotic animals — sounds kind of confusing.
Verdict: “Hoppers” needs to be undeniably great and marketable to parents of youngsters. Otherwise, Pixar is doomed to retreat into the world of sequels and possibly forced to send anything new to streaming.
Digger (Warner Bros.)
Release date: Oct. 2
Thrill factor: It’s been a while since Tom Cruise, who once worked with Spielberg and Scorsese, put himself in the hands of a true master. He’s got one of the greatest who ever slid behind a camera in Alejandro G. Iñárritu.
Chill factor: These two are partnering on the story of a powerful man who tries to save humanity from a disaster he’s unleashed. We just lived through Elon Musk and DOGE. Oh, and it’s a comedy.
Verdict: Execution dependent. Cruise’s movies are pricey, so unless he gave WB a big bargain, he and Iñárritu better deliver the next “Tropic Thunder.”