If you are wondering whether AST SpaceMobile’s current share price reflects its true worth, you are not alone. The stock has attracted a lot of attention from investors trying to work out what is already priced in.
The share price recently closed at US$97.57, with returns of 30.6% over 7 days, 32.0% over 30 days, 16.9% year to date and 324.2% over the last year. The 3 year return is very large at close to 19x, which naturally raises questions about what kind of future the market is expecting.
Recent news coverage has focused on AST SpaceMobile’s work on space based cellular broadband and its efforts to build out a satellite network that aims to connect standard mobile phones directly to satellites. This context has framed the sharp share price moves as investors weigh the commercial potential of global coverage against the execution and funding risks that come with such a capital intensive project.
AST SpaceMobile currently scores 1 out of 6 on our valuation checks, meaning it screens as undervalued on only one of six metrics, and you can see the breakdown in our valuation score. In the sections that follow we will look at how different valuation methods line up for this stock, and then finish with a way of thinking about valuation that goes beyond just the numbers.
AST SpaceMobile scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes projected future cash flows and discounts them back to today using a required rate of return, to estimate what the entire business might be worth in current dollars.
For AST SpaceMobile, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash flow projections in US$. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of about US$1,078.1 million. Analyst estimates and extrapolations then move this from negative free cash flow in 2026 and 2027 to positive territory, reaching projected free cash flow of US$1,122.2 million in 2030, with further growth estimated beyond that by Simply Wall St.
When all these projected cash flows are discounted back, the model indicates an intrinsic value of about US$102.27 per share, compared with the recent share price of US$97.57. That implies the stock trades at roughly a 4.6% discount to this DCF estimate, so it sits quite close to the modeled fair value.
Result: ABOUT RIGHT
AST SpaceMobile is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment’s notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.
Story Continues
ASTS Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026
For companies that are still building toward consistent profitability, the price to book, or P/B, ratio is a useful way to see how the market values the balance sheet relative to its accounting equity. It is often used when earnings are volatile or negative, because it focuses on net assets rather than current profits.
In general, higher expected growth and lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/B multiple, while slower growth or higher risk tend to support a lower, more conservative range. So the question is what looks reasonable for AST SpaceMobile when you compare it to similar businesses.
AST SpaceMobile currently trades at a P/B of 22.09x. That sits well above the Telecom industry average of about 1.13x and also above the peer group average of 6.73x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework is designed to go a step further by estimating what a suitable P/B might be for this specific company, taking into account factors like growth expectations, risks, profit margins, its industry and its market cap. Because the Fair Ratio is tailored to AST SpaceMobile rather than broad groups, it can provide a more company specific reference point than simple industry or peer comparisons.
Result: OVERVALUED
NasdaqGS:ASTS P/B Ratio as at Jan 2026
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Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of a company with the numbers behind it.
A Narrative is your story about AST SpaceMobile, where you spell out what you think could happen to its revenue, earnings and margins, then link that to a fair value estimate that sits behind the share price chart.
On Simply Wall St, Narratives live in the Community page and are designed to be accessible, so you can quickly see how a company’s story leads to a forecast, then to a fair value that you can compare with the current price when you are thinking about buying or selling.
Because Narratives on the platform are updated when fresh information like news or earnings appears, you can watch how fair value estimates respond. For example, one AST SpaceMobile Narrative might assume very optimistic adoption of space based cellular broadband and arrive at a much higher fair value, while another focuses on execution and funding risks and therefore sits at a much lower fair value.
Do you think there’s more to the story for AST SpaceMobile? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
NasdaqGS:ASTS 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ASTS.
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