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Rivian Automotive (RIVN) is back in focus as the planned R2 SUV launch, rising software and IP revenues, and management’s push toward an autonomy platform draw attention ahead of the upcoming earnings report.
See our latest analysis for Rivian Automotive.
Rivian’s 1-day share price return of 7.79% to US$14.80 comes after attention around the upcoming R2 SUV and autonomy push. However, the 30-day share price return of a 25.59% decline and year to date share price return of a 23.75% decline, alongside a 3-year total shareholder return of a 21.49% decline, suggest momentum has been mixed even with a 1-year total shareholder return of 18.59%.
If you are tracking how EV sentiment is shifting toward software heavy platforms, it may be worth scanning a wider peer set through our screener of 33 AI infrastructure stocks.
With Rivian trading at US$14.80, showing a 64% intrinsic discount estimate and sitting about 15% below the average analyst price target, you have to ask whether this represents a genuine opportunity or whether the market is already pricing in future growth.
Rivian’s last close at $14.80 sits well below the fair value of $25.41 in the most followed narrative, which frames the current price as a sizeable discount.
Gen2 R1T and R1S, refinement from feedback and lower cost building. R2, R3 and R3X lower cost options for different audience. JV with VW and the ripple effects for Software and Electrical Architecture deals through not just VW but also others. Utilizing Supplier leverage from VW. Amazon expanding EDV’s in Europe with recent order. Europe expansion in general. RJ’s focus on what’s important approach while keeping out of politics and remaining neutral gives others including that are building up hate for Tesla a great alternative. Revenue from existing and expanding charging infrastructure, not just for Rivian’s but also third party OEM’s. Gross Profitability guidance for FY25
Curious how this view, according to McLarenFund, gets to a valuation that far above $14.80? The narrative leans heavily on rapid revenue expansion, improving profitability assumptions and a future earnings multiple more often associated with mature software heavy names. Want to see exactly how those moving parts stack up into a $25.41 fair value and a 41.8% discount call?
Result: Fair Value of $25.41 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this depends on Rivian executing cleanly on new models and software, and on partnerships like the VW collaboration and Amazon orders progressing as anticipated.
Find out about the key risks to this Rivian Automotive narrative.
While the narrative points to a $25.41 fair value, our ratio checks tell a different story. At a P/S of 3.1x versus peers at 1.7x and the US Auto group at 0.6x, and a fair ratio of 1.2x, Rivian screens as expensive. Is the market already paying up for future growth?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
NasdaqGS:RIVN P/S Ratio as at Feb 2026
If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or just want to put your own assumptions to the test, you can build a custom Rivian storyline in a few minutes using our tools, starting with Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Rivian Automotive research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
If Rivian has you thinking harder about where you put your cash next, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with a few focused stock ideas.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include RIVN.
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