and sticky-inflation worries, which matters because emerging-market assets often struggle when US rates and the dollar stay high. Gold’s rebound fits that cautious mood: when investors hedge inflation risk, they often dial back exposure to higher-risk currencies.
Why should I care?
For markets: Two-way tug of war.
Local events can move prices quickly, but the rand still takes its cue from global risk appetite. If demand for government inflation protection is strong and SONA lands well, South African bonds and banks can catch a bid. But another bout of US-driven tech volatility or higher-for-longer rate expectations can pressure the currency and raise funding costs across the market.
The bigger picture: Policy trust does the heavy lifting.
For emerging markets, confidence is as valuable as yield. Clear, consistent steps on power-sector reform and fiscal discipline can lower the “risk premium” investors demand – and that translates into a sturdier currency over time. Mixed signals or policy U-turns do the opposite, especially when global conditions tighten.