Diverging price performance across commodity markets in 2026 | Oxford Economics
Metals are expected to outperform, while energy and agricultural commodities weaken on average.
Commodity markets have entered 2026 with an unusually wide dispersion in price performance. After several years in which broad macro forces dominated price movements, sector-specific fundamentals are now playing a more decisive role. Our latest commodity price forecasts point to a clear divergence this year: metals are expected to outperform, while energy and agricultural commodities are set to weaken on average.
What you will learn in this report:
Precious and battery metals are forecast to record the fastest price growth, supported by strong investor demand, base effects, and policy- and geopolitics-related tailwinds, reflecting the uneven transmission of risks across commodity markets.
Base metals will also outperform, driven by robust investment-led demand from data centres, electricity networks, and high-value manufacturing.
Agricultural prices remain under pressure, reflecting strong global harvests, elevated inventories, and subdued demand growth.
Oil prices are expected to see the sharpest declines, as persistent surplus conditions dominate pricing.
Natural gas prices diverge across regions, with US benchmarks rising as expanding LNG exports tighten domestic balances, while European prices ease as flexible LNG supply continues to replace Russian gas.
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