A combine harvester empties Canola into a grain cart on a farm near Clandeboye, Man., in September.Shannon Vanraes/Reuters
A total of $12-billion in exports of food and drink currently shipped to the United States could find new buyers at home and abroad, according to a report published Monday.
Redirecting these products would help curtail Canada’s dependency on the U.S., an increasingly unreliable market that Canadian farmers and food processors are overwhelmingly reliant on. The U.S. accounts for 76 per cent of Canada’s total food and beverage exports. Diversifying $12-billion of trade would take this share down to 50 per cent, said the Farm Credit Canada report.
But to do this, Canada will first need to address interprovincial trade barriers, and boost productivity to get a firmer foothold in other international markets.
“We have to focus on making ourselves more competitive in other markets,” said J.P. Gervais, chief economist at Farm Credit Canada. “We acknowledge that the U.S. is always going to be a big, big driver of business but the U.S. trade landscape is changing and I don’t think anybody can predict where we’re going to be in 12 months or 12 years.”
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Canada’s dependence on the U.S. for food and beverage exports has steadily increased from 2018 to 2023, rising to just over three-quarters from 67 per cent.
But around $2.6-billion of product Canada shipped south of the border could be sold at home if products moved across provincial lines with more ease, said the report. This is because Canadian products could displace U.S. products sold in this country, Mr. Gervais said.
For example, consider alcohol.
Alcoholic beverages are not able to flow freely across Canada. Certain provinces – namely Quebec and Ontario – do not permit residents to buy alcohol direct from producers in other provinces.
And this regulatory burden means many producers send much of their product south of the border, said Mr. Gervais. The report calculated that $271-million of alcohol currently exported to the U.S. could be redirected to national markets if provincial trade barriers were addressed.
But interprovincial trade alone won’t address the food industry’s dependence on the U.S. market. Diversification into international markets is also required.
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High-value markets in Europe offer opportunities for growth, as do rapidly expanding and developing Asian countries. International buyers in both could subsume $9.4-billion in current U.S. exports, said the report.
For example, in 2023 the U.S. bought over 90 per cent of Canada’s exports of vegetable oils, according to the report. The report calculated that $1.785-billion could be sold to markets in China, India, Italy and The Netherlands.
To accomplish diversified trade across a number of products, the federal government needs to pursue new free-trade agreements, Mr. Gervais said.
But industry should also leverage existing agreements, he added. Canada’s 15 trade agreements give access to 51 countries and 66 per cent of global GDP, said the report.
Finding new markets at home and abroad will also require investment in domestic production, Mr. Gervais said. Canada’s agricultural industry has historically been focused on exporting primary agricultural products, said the report. Processed foods often fetch more money and provide manufacturing jobs at home.
Canada is heading in the right direction, Mr. Gervais said. This month, Ottawa unveiled the initial list of major projects to be expedited. The list included the expansion of the Port of Montreal, transportation infrastructure that should help diversify trade, he added.
In May, Farm Credit Canada also announced it would invest $2-billion in agri-food startups to boost domestic processing.
“All these things will ultimately come together and make an impact,” Mr. Gervais said. “The relentless drive to be more productive is tied to the ability to lower costs, be more competitive and this should lead to more sales.”