To put the current calculus of the Oscar race in math terms, two Michael B. Jordans are greater than one Timothée Chalamet.
In a whiplash-inducing turn of events, the Sinners star has jumped to No. 1 in our Gold Derby expert predictions for Best Actor, wiping out Chalamet’s huge, season-long lead in the category and adding a healthy dose of intrigue to the waning days of this awards cycle. Jordan now has a 57 percent of winning his first Oscar, while Chalamet has tumbled to 29 percent among the Gold Derby experts, a collection of journalists, critics, and pundits with years-long experience tracking awards at major media outlets.
Best Actor
1.
Michael B. Jordan
Sinners
2.
Timothée Chalamet
Marty Supreme
3.
Wagner Moura
The Secret Agent
4.
5.
Leonardo DiCaprio
One Battle After Another
The head-spinning flip-flop began in the immediate aftermath of last Sunday’s Actor Awards, where Jordan’s peers in SAG-AFTRA delivered him the Lead Actor award for playing the Smokestack twins in Ryan Coogler’s epic vampire-musical mashup. Over the past four days, Jordan surged 48 percentage points as Chalamet dropped 43 points. The timing of the SAG win is significant, coming in the midst of Oscar balloting and offering a powerful closing argument for Jordan before voting closed last night.
After falling short last year, Chalamet had seemed like a sure bet for his first Academy Award, entrenched in the No. 1 position on the Gold Derby leaderboard even before Marty Supreme premiered at the New York Film Festival last fall. Wins at the Critics Choice and Golden Globes in January bolstered his case. But he might have peaked early. Over the last two weeks, Chalamet lost in a stunning upset at the BAFTA Film Awards then faced the surprising Actor Awards setback (a prize he won last year), and suddenly his front-runner status is in serious doubt. Backlash to some off-putting early campaign choices and a damning report about Marty director Josh Safdie’s alleged misbehavior on a previous film set probably haven’t helped Chalamet’s cause.
By no means is the race over, however. While Jordan leads among both Gold Derby expert and editor predictions, Chalamet still has a slight edge, 43 percent to 41 percent, among our users, which includes a mix of fans and a fair share of industry insiders.
Best Actor
1.
Timothée Chalamet
Marty Supreme
2.
Michael B. Jordan
Sinners
3.
Wagner Moura
The Secret Agent
4.
Leonardo DiCaprio
One Battle After Another
5.
We won’t know for certain how the Jordan vs. Chalamet drama plays out until the Academy Awards are doled out on March 15; until then, we’ll be keeping close tabs on the suddenly fluid odds.