With only days to go before the 98th Oscars, nearly all of the two dozen races seem settled, based on Gold Derby’s prediction data. We have been tracking the race since the fall and compiling months of inputs from experts (a selection of journalists, critics, and pundits with years of experience at major media outlets), Gold Derby’s editorial staff (who cover awards year-round for the site), and our users (a combination of informed fans and industry insiders). Based on 25 years of Academy Awards predictions, our historical accuracy is 78 percent.
However, after some surprising results over the past two weeks from the BAFTA Film Awards, SAG-AFTRA’s Actor Awards, and other key Hollywood guilds — all occurring during the Academy voting window — there is still a handful of categories that appear to be a coin-flip.
Four of the five graphs below show how the respective races have been thrown into flux post-precursors, while the fifth reveals the tightening of a race that might have more to do with vibes than specific data points.
1. Best Actor
The highest-profile category shakeup came here. Marty Supreme’s Timothée Chalamet appeared poised to go wire-to-wire in the Best Actor field until back-to-back losses at the BAFTAs and Actor Awards knocked him off course. Combined with Sinners star Michael B. Jordan‘s stratospheric rise, the script was flipped just as the final week of Oscar voting commenced.
Beyond the Chalamet-Jordan switcheroo, there were other storylines that match up with the rising and falling odds. A decade after winning this award for The Revenant, Leonardo DiCaprio jumped out as an early co-favorite for Best Actor for One Battle After Another; but he chose to step back from campaigning and focus his energies on supporting the film, his cast mates, and director Paul Thomas Anderson, sending Leo’s odds sinking faster than the Titanic. The Secret Agent’s Wagner Moura seemed like a legitimate challenger after winning the Golden Globe for Best Drama Actor, but then missed on nominations at the BAFTAs and Actor Awards, and his odds dwindled. As the lone nominee for Blue Moon, Ethan Hawke has held steady in fifth place throughout.
Best Actor
1.
Michael B. Jordan
Sinners
2.
Timothée Chalamet
Marty Supreme
3.
Wagner Moura
The Secret Agent
4.
Leonardo DiCaprio
One Battle After Another
5.
2. Best Supporting Actor
At various points through the campaign, each of the five nominees appeared viable. One Battle After Another’s Benicio Del Toro had a strong run through the critics’ awards; Frankenstein’s Jacob Elordi kicked off the year by winning the Critics Choice Award; Sentimental Value’s Stellan Skarsgård followed with the Golden Globe. Then Sean Penn doubled up at BAFTA and the Actor Awards, propelling the One Battle antagonist to front-runner status despite not actively campaigning. But don’t sleep on Delroy Lindo — while the veteran was ignored by the precursors, he has been a strong FYC presence, earned sympathy points over the BAFTA N-word fiasco, and delivered the acceptance speech on behalf of the Sinners cast for their Best Ensemble win at the Actor Awards. And as the graph reveals, he has been slowly ticking up in the odds.
Best Supporting Actor
1.
Sean Penn
One Battle After Another
2.
Stellan Skarsgård
Sentimental Value
3.
4.
Jacob Elordi
Frankenstein
5.
Benicio Del Toro
One Battle After Another
3. Best Supporting Actress
Similarly, this race has seen three different performers capture key precursors: Weapons’ Amy Madigan got on the board with the Critics Choice Awards, but then a week later, Teyana Taylor established herself as the Oscar favorite after her Golden Globe win. She held onto the No. 1 slot even as Sinners’ Wunmi Mosaku took BAFTA. It was only after the Actors Awards, where Madigan triumphed, that the odds reset — just as the Academy polls closed.
Best Supporting Actress
1.
2.
3.
Teyana Taylor
One Battle After Another
4.
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Sentimental Value
5.
Elle Fanning
Sentimental Value
4. Best Cinematography
As this graph clearly indicates, Sinners’ cinematographer Autumn Durald Arkapaw, looking to make an historic run, took the lead out of the gate over Train Dreams DP Adolpho Veloso. Those two appeared to separate themselves from the field until this month, when One Battle shooter Michael Bauman secured key precursor wins at BAFTA and the American Society of Cinematographers and dramatically shot up the leaderboard, putting this race in the toss-up zone.
READ: Gold Derby’s final Oscar predictions in all categories
5. Best Picture
After romping through the critics awards and going undefeated in the top races at the precursors and guilds, including producers, directors, and writers, there’s no logical reason to believe that One Battle After Another won’t win Best Picture. Indeed, it’s firmly entrenched in the No. 1 spot on our charts and remains the prohibitive favorite. But support for Sinners has been slowly growing and the gap with One Battle slightly narrowing following big wins at the Actor Awards, huge industry support (there’s a reason it received a record-setting 16 Oscar nominations), and something undeniable about the reactions in the room every time the vampire-musical mash-up notches another win. Apparently there are some true believers out there, who, to paraphrase Mosaku’s Annie, envision the Ryan Coogler joint having enough magic to pierce the veil… and bring home the statuette.
Best Picture
1.
2.
