52m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:31amBreaking: Reserve Bank hikes interest rate

The RBA has hiked its cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.1% at its latest monetary policy board meeting.

4m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:19am

War agitating existing issues with economy

Chalmers concedes that while the decision to raise the cash rate hasn’t come as a surprise, it doesn’t make it easier for the millions of mortgage holders around the country.

“This obviously is not the decision that lots of Australians were hoping for,” he says.

He says the Iran war is impacting existing inflation problems in the economy.

“The impacts of what we’re seeing in that part of the world are already substantial, but we don’t know yet how enduring those very substantial economic pressures will be. It depends very heavily on how long the conflict in the Middle East continues for,” he says.

6m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:17amAussie dollar still down on RBA close call

We’re now 45 minutes past the interest rate hike and the Australian dollar is remaining lower, currently around 70.6 US cents after slipping down towards 70.5 US.

Given it was a close call for the RBA board, at a 5-4 split in favour of the hike, the market seems to be winding back expectations of another hike in May being a sure bet.

AUD/USD (LSEG Refinitiv)16m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:08amMortgage repayment calculator

Today’s rate hike means if you’re on a variable-rate home loan, your minimum monthly repayments will increase, if and when your bank passes along the rate hike.

Use the repayments calculator with your home loan details to find out how much extra you could be paying each month.

19m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:05amIncreased penalties and surveillance on fuel prices: Chalmers

Jim Chalmers has turned to fuel prices, with the consumer regulator meeting with industry representatives today.

The treasurer says penalties and surveillance measures will be increased.

He says the ACCC has the power to act on dodgy behaviour in the market.

“Suppliers and retailers must not treat motorists as mugs.

“They are on notice.”

Chalmers says the ACCC “will throw the book at them” if they do the wrong thing.

22m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:01amThis will put additional pressure on people: Chalmers

Treasurer Jim Chalmers is speaking in Canberra.

He says at a time of uncertainty, the rate hike will put additional pressure on Australians.

24m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 4:00amCash rate back to 4.1% after two hikes in 2026

The 0.25 percentage point rate hike takes the cash rate to 4.1% — that’s back where it last sat between February and May 2025.

So in 2026, we’ve seen the RBA essentially undo two of the three rate cuts it delivered in 2025.

Business reporter Gareth Hutchens will be updating this story over the coming hours:

28m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:56amMiddle East conflict poses ‘risks in both directions’: RBA board

The RBA board’s post-meeting statement says the conflict in the Middle East “poses substantial risks in both directions”.

“A longer or more severe conflict could put further upward pressure on global energy prices; this will push up near-term inflation and could also increase inflation further out if it impairs supply capacity or price rises get built into longer term inflation expectations.

“Higher prices and prolonged uncertainty may cause growth to be lower in Australia’s major trading partners and also in Australia.”

Questions about how the board is weighing up these risks to inflation and growth will no doubt be put to the RBA governor in less than 40 minutes’ time.

32m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:52amMarkets now pricing in just a 30% chance of a follow-up rate rise in May

Checking the latest futures pricing on Bloomberg, financial markets are now pricing in just a 30% chance of a follow-up rate hike at the next RBA meeting in May, after the two delivered today and last month.

That makes sense given how split the board was over today’s rate rise, with four out of nine members clearly wanting more time to assess the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict before lifting rates.

Clearly, markets believe other board members will join them at the May meeting in wanting to assess the economic data before hiking rates even higher.

The economists at Australia’s big four banks all forecast there will be a follow-up hike in May, although those predictions predated today’s meeting outcome.

But it’s not all good news for borrowers. Financial markets are still pricing in the likelihood of two more rate rises by early next year, which would take the cash rate to 4.6 per cent — slightly above its post-COVID high of 4.35 per cent.

41m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:43amHome loan borrowers facing higher repayments

If you’re on a variable mortgage and make the minimum monthly repayment, those are likely to rise after this afternoon’s rate hike.

We haven’t heard from lenders yet about passing on the hike but it’s fairly safe to assume they will.

Here are the numbers Canstar crunched on the impact of a March hike, as well as the cumulative impact of the past two meetings:

46m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:37am

‘Material risk’ inflation will remain above target: RBA board

As expected, the Middle East war and the inflation fallout is top of the RBA board’s post-meeting statement:

“While inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it picked up materially in the second half of 2025.

“Information since the February meeting suggests that some of the increase in inflation reflects greater capacity pressures.

“In addition, the conflict in the Middle East has resulted in sharply higher fuel prices, which, if sustained, will add to inflation.

“Short-term measures of inflation expectations have already risen.

“As a result, the Board judged that there is a material risk that inflation will remain above target for longer than previously anticipated.”

48m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:36amAussie dollar down and ASX heading higher in initial wash-up

Just a few minutes since the decision, the Aussie dollar initially took a little dive — it’s down 0.1% against the greenback to 70.6 US cents, from around 70.8 US ahead of the rate hike.

And the ASX 200 is up around a quarter of a per cent.

50m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:34amRBA board split on decision to hike, with five for hike and four against

Here’s what the last line of the RBA statement reveals about the split decision to hike rates:

“Today’s policy decision was made by majority: five members voted to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10 per cent; four members voted to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 3.85 per cent.”

53m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:31amRBA hikes cash rate to 4.1% in March

The Reserve Bank board has delivered a 0.25 percentage point hike at its March meeting.

55m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:29amAussie dollar and ASX higher a few minutes out from RBA

The Australian dollar remains 0.2% higher at 70.8 US cents.

The ASX 200 is 0.2% higher at 8,599 points.

57m agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:26am

The first correspondent on the scene

The Reserve Bank’s press conference room is looking a bit deserted.

You know it’s a 3:30pm AEDT appearance from Michele Bullock right, David Taylor?

RBA press conference room (ABC News: David Taylor)1h agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:23amAll four major banks forecast hikes in March and May

It’s not unheard of for market predictions and leading forecasters to be wrong, but it is worth noting that all four major banks’ economics teams expect a rate hike today and another in May.

However, we only have to go back to July 2025 when the RBA held the cash rate steady, compared to overwhelming market expectations of a rate cut that month, to know the unexpected could occur.

1h agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:18amStock markets around the region mostly higher

The ASX 200 is up 0.1% at the moment, after falling back towards the flatline over the past few hours.

Here’s how Asian markets are faring:

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 +0.5%Shanghai Composite +0.1%Shenzhen Component -0.2%Seoul’s Kospi 200 +3%Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +1%

1h agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:11am

📺 Coverage of RBA decision on ABC News Channel

If you want to watch coverage of the decision on ABC News Channel you can do so at the top of the blog.

My colleagues Alicia Barry and David Taylor are on deck and will be joined by experts for reaction at 2:30pm AEDT.

And of course we’ll bring you RBA governor Michele Bullock’s press conference at 3:30pm AEDT.

1h agoTue 17 Mar 2026 at 3:03amHow the RBA’s cash rate has been tracking

A 0.25 percentage point hike would take the RBA’s cash rate to 4.1%.

Here is how it has tracked so far: