By Myra P. Saefong

President Trump’s call for help to secure the oil chokepoint has ‘largely fallen on deaf ears,’ analyst notes

Oil prices were climbing Tuesday as attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continued.

Global oil prices were poised to end above $100 a barrel for a fourth session in a row on Tuesday, as some nations refused a U.S. call for help to secure the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial Middle Eastern waterway for the transport of crude, fertilizer and other essentials for the global economy.

“The geopolitical outlook remains fragile, making oil prices more prone to further upside than a sustained decline,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote.

U.S. benchmark April West Texas Intermediate crude (CL.1) (CLJ26) climbed 1.8% to $95.19 a barrel, after losing 5.3% on Monday. Global benchmark Brent crude saw its May contract (BRN00) (BRNK26) tack on 2.3% to trade at $102.50 a barrel, recouping part of the 2.8% it lost in the previous session.

Read: A recession will be hard to avoid if oil prices stay elevated for even a few more weeks, says Moody’s

The situation in the Middle East remains delicate. President Donald Trump called on Monday for U.S. allies to help secure safe passage of crude tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. But recent reports also indicate that shipping through the strait remains limited, even as Iran may allow some tanker traffic, offering a “mixed signal” to global oil markets.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi essentially said Monday that the Strait of Hormuz remains open – suggesting that Iran may be allowing most traffic to pass through the strait while restricting only certain vessels, according to Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. “From a market perspective, that starts to look less like a full blockade and more like selective disruption,” he noted.

That eases the oil market at the margin because it changes the “basic arithmetic that traders are running on,” Innes told MarketWatch. If cargoes for large buyers like China and India are moving again, several million oil barrels per day can still transit the corridor, and Saudi Arabia can redirect additional volumes through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, he said.

‘What initially looked like a catastrophic blockade begins to resemble a constrained detour rather than a full seizure of the artery.’Stephen Innes, SPI Asset Management

So “what initially looked like a catastrophic blockade begins to resemble a constrained detour rather than a full seizure of the artery,” Innes said.

The reports that some ships are making it through the strait were the main cause of the drop in oil prices Monday, said Aaron Hill, chief market analyst at FP Markets. He added, however, that “things are far from normal, and oil prices are demonstrating this right now.”

According to a post on X Tuesday from ship-tracking service MarineTraffic, Strait of Hormuz activity “remains limited.” Its data show that a total of 15 vessels transited through the strait over the past three days, including five tankers.

Meanwhile, Trump’s recent call for allies to send warships to help secure passage through the strait has “largely fallen on deaf ears,” Hill said in emailed commentary.

Read: Trump says ‘numerous countries’ will help reopen the Strait of Hormuz but declines to name them

In a post on Truth Social on Tuesday, Trump said that the U.S. has “decimated” Iran’s military and that its leaders “at virtually every level, are gone,” so the U.S. does not “‘need’, or desire the NATO Countries’ assistance -WE NEVER DID!”

Read: U.S. doesn’t need help in Iran, Trump says, as NATO members rebuff plea and oil prices climb

Israel continued its airstrikes on Iran, with Israeli security officials saying Iran’s security chief, Ali Larijani, was killed Monday during strikes around Tehran.

Still, the reluctance of some countries to join a U.S.-led effort to secure the Strait of Hormuz “matters” more for political optics than for the immediate oil balance, SPI Asset Management’s Innes noted. There is a lingering loss of goodwill after years of sanctions and trade disputes, he said, and over time, that could “point to a more fragmented geopolitical landscape.”

In the near term, however, “the oil market still focuses on whether barrels continue to move,” and that can support higher oil prices, he added.

Read: Major U.S. ports navigate uncertainty as conflict with Iran threatens global shipping

-Myra P. Saefong

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03-17-26 1327ET

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