MARKET WRAPS
Stocks:
European indexes all ticked higher, tracking global gains as oil prices held steady ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision at 1800 GMT.
The oil market was now pricing in actual supply disruption rather than just geopolitical risks , XS said, suggesting oil’s upward momentum could be sustained.
“This distinction is crucial, as real supply losses tend to trigger stronger and more sustained price reactions compared to periods dominated by perceived risk alone.”
It added that global oil supply losses could be reaching 8 million barrels of oil a day, or nearly 8.0% of global demand.
And while Fidelity International said prices were likely to stay elevated near term, it reckoned that central banks still had time before they needed to react to the war.
Ebury said it looked increasingly likely the next European Central Bank interest-rate move will be a hike , rather than a cut
Stocks to Watch
LVMH ‘s shares have underperformed the sector so far this year and in 2025, creating an appealing entry point ahead of an expected sales and earnings inflection this year, Citi said.
U.S. Markets:
Stocks appeared poised to rise for a third straight day.
Earnings are due from Micron Technology, General Mills, Williams-Sonoma and Macy’s.
Forex:
The euro fell slightly versus the dollar.
The Fed meeting shouldn’t be a game changer for the euro versus the dollar, according to Danske Bank.
“The Fed remains in a comfortable position to just wait and see how the war in Iran evolves.”
The dollar stabilized, with markets quieter in general ahead of the Fed rate decision.
The dollar’s strength, due to high oil prices and risk aversion during the war, might fade, Jefferies said.
“We would be looking to fade the U.S. dollar strength and still have a view of medium-term U.S. dollar weakness.”
Bonds:
Treasury yields declined across maturities, with longer-dated yields falling faster than their short-end peers.
“U.S. Treasurys remain a key defensive lever in investors’ portfolios,” Russell Investments said, adding that the 10-year Treasury yield suggested a whisker of attractiveness at levels around 4.3%.
Eurozone government bond yields declined.
Bond markets continued to stabilize ahead of this week’s key central bank meetings, potentially allowing eurozone government bond yield spreads to tighten further , Commerzbank said.
“Markets remain cautiously optimistic with yields consolidating further and eurozone government bond spreads tightening across the board, led by Italy.”
While yields will probably not be able to decouple from energy price dynamics in a lasting way, intraday oil price swings may lose importance going forward, amid hopes that the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz will soon ease.
The 10-year Japanese government bond yield was likely to reach around 2.7% at some point within the year, SuMi TRUST said.
Energy:
Oil prices fell after Iraq reached an agreement to export its oil through the Kurdistan region to Turkey’s Ceyhan port, providing some relief to the market.
However, ING said that upstream production continued to decline as producers try to manage storage constraints.
“With no sign of de-escalation in the Middle East, Brent crude appears to have found a floor just above $100 a barrel.”
Nomura said under an extreme scenario of a full fuel export ban, a halt in jet-fuel exports-China’s main refined product-could have a notable impact on global markets given near-term supply tightness.
Since March 2, only 38 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz , Kpler said.
Gas
Natural-gas prices edged lower, but remained more than 60% higher on month.
Escalating Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf have raised concerns over already tight fuel supplies.
In the U.A.E., operations at the Shah gas field were suspended after a drone strike caused a fire.
“These supply disruptions have come during Europe’s official injection season, leaving the region with low gas reserves and a need to secure additional LNG this summer,” ANZ said.
“Europe will now be competing with Asia for scarce supplies if Middle Eastern exports are reduced, likely shifting LNG flow patterns.”
Metals:
Gold prices held broadly steady.
“Continued U.S. and Israeli strikes, Iran’s retaliation across the Gulf and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have intensified concerns over global energy supply and inflation, reducing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts,” MUFG said.
Base Metals
Copper fell as rising inventories point to a weak start of seasonal demand in China.
LME inventories surged to 330,375 tons-the highest since September 201-with most inflows to Taiwan and Baltimore.
Rising inventories reflect softer physical demand, weaker Chinese consumption, and slower shipments to the U.S., according to ING.
Speculative sentiment also eased, with net bullish copper positions dropping 284 lots to 32,788–the lowest since October 2023.
OCBC expects aluminum prices to be $3,500 a metric ton in 2Q.
EMEA HEADLINES
BASF to Hike Some Prices by Up to 30% or More as Energy, Materials Costs Soar
BASF said it is raising the prices of many of its products by up to 30% as shockwaves from the conflict in the Middle East take their toll on an already beleaguered European industrial sector.
Prices of products in the German chemicals group’s home-care, industrial & institutional cleaning and industrial formulators segments in Europe will rise by up to nearly a third, or even more in some cases. The increases are effective immediately or as allowed by existing contracts, the supplier of industrial chemicals said.
Bollore Shares Climb After Proposed Extra Shareholder Returns
Shares in Bollore Group surged after the French conglomerate proposed one-off returns to its shareholders, despite a drop in revenue and profit.
The stock jumped more than 14% in early European morning trading. Over the year to date, shares have risen 4%.
HelloFresh Shares Fall on Weak Guidance
Shares in HelloFresh fell on Wednesday after the meal-kit maker posted weaker-than-expected guidance for 2026.
In European morning trading, shares were 13% lower at 3.98 euros, down 35% in the year to date.
EU Chief Von Der Leyen to Visit Australia as Trade Talks Progress
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen plans to visit Australia next week as talks on a long-awaited trade deal between the two regions progress.
Von der Leyen is set to visit Australia from Monday to Wednesday, with the European Union chief set to meet with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra, the EC said.
GLOBAL NEWS
Asian Refiners Lock in Russian Crude Early Amid Middle East Shortages
Asian refiners are moving earlier than usual to secure crude oil from Russia’s Far East, as hopes for a swift resolution to Middle Eastern supply disruptions fade and the expiration of a U.S. temporary waiver on Russian oil looms.
Cargoes of Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean blended crude oil-a light, sweet Russian grade exported from the Kozmino terminal in the Far East to Asia-Pacific markets-are normally traded one month before loading. But with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, trading has kicked off early as refiners rush to plug supply gaps, according to Kpler.
What Happens at the Fed If Kevin Warsh Isn’t Confirmed by May 15
The Federal Reserve has a chair, a nominee to replace him, and no clear path to a transition.
Jerome Powell, who has led the world’s most powerful central bank since 2018, sees his four-year term as chair expire on May 15. But Kevin Warsh, the former Fed governor that President Donald Trump nominated in January to succeed him, has no Senate confirmation hearing date. Legal battles, political maneuvering, and questions about Powell’s intentions have made the road ahead murkier-and more drawn out-than the White House and investors would like.
In Delaying China Summit, Trump Faces a Familiar Mideast Distraction
BEIJING-The U.S. can’t seem to focus on China.
For years, American presidents from both political parties have pledged to concentrate their energies on competing with Beijing and managing the often fraught relationship between the world’s two largest economies. Time and again, conflicts elsewhere have distracted them.
Stratton Wins Illinois Senate Primary, Sparing Pritzker Political Embarrassment
Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton of Illinois won her state’s Democratic primary for U.S. Senate on Tuesday, helping Gov. JB Pritzker dodge political embarrassment as she placed herself in a strong position to become the sixth Black woman to serve in the chamber.
Stratton, who stressed her progressive leanings throughout the campaign, defeated two of the state’s congressional representatives, Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly, and was declared the victor by the Associated Press.
Private-Sector Role Clarified in Offensive U.S. Cyber Strategy
The Trump administration’s top cybersecurity official says private-sector firms aren’t expected to confront nation-state hackers under a new cyber strategy that takes an aggressive approach to protecting critical U.S. infrastructure.
Sean Cairncross, the White House’s national cyber director, said the strategy, unveiled earlier this month, doesn’t call on businesses to engage in offensive cyber campaigns: “It’s not your job to defend against the Chinese or the Russians or the Iranians,” Cairncross said at an industry event Tuesday.
Gulf States Want the U.S. to Cripple Iran’s Regime Before Ending the War
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
March 18, 2026 07:01 ET (11:01 GMT)
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