​​​Macro update
​Oil surge:
Prices climbed around 3% to above $110 a barrel after Iran targeted energy infrastructure across the Gulf, intensifying fears of supply disruption.
​Middle East escalation:
Strikes on facilities in Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia signalled a shift towards critical energy assets, raising the risk of a prolonged conflict.
​Equity sell-off:
Asian markets fell sharply, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropping more than 3% and broader regional indices weakening as investors priced in stagflation risks.
​Central banks remain cautious:
The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates unchanged and indicated only one cut this year, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) also held policy steady, citing uncertainty from rising energy costs.
​Dollar strength and yields:
The US dollar stayed near multi-month highs and US two-year yields moved higher as expectations for rate cuts were pushed back.
​FX and commodities moves:
The Japanese yen hovered near 160 per dollar, gold steadied after recent declines, and natural gas prices rose alongside oil on supply concerns.
​Nasdaq 100 slips
​The Nasdaq 100 has resumed its descent and is weighing on its recent March lows at 24,336 – 24,289. Were a daily chart close below this support area to be made, the late September to October 2025 lows at 24,207 – 24,186 may be reached next. Further down lies the November trough at 23,854.
​Minor resistance now sits at the early February 24,455 low and at the December 24,647 trough.
​Short-term outlook:
Bearish while below the 17 March 24,884 high.
​Medium-term outlook:
Neutral with a bearish undertone while above the 9 March low at 24,289; failure there would turn the forecast bearish, targeting the November low at 23,854.
Nasdaq 100 daily candlestick chart