Our forecast of 3.7% GDP growth in 2026 is based, among other factors, on the assumption that the pace of private consumption growth will remain close to that of 2025, when it increased by 3.7% YoY. At the same time, 2026 will see a significant decline in the growth rate of real disposable income, meaning that a fall in the savings rate is needed to sustain consumption growth.
The emergence of a new source of uncertainty – namely, the war in Iran and the surge in fuel prices – may trigger households’ reluctance to draw down their savings. The 2Q26 data may not yet reflect this, but subsequent readings probably will.
Additionally, a rise in expected inflation, driven by fuel price increases, negatively affects real disposable incomes. The deterioration in consumer and business sentiment and confidence poses a risk to consumption and private investment, generating downside risks to the GDP forecast for 2026.