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March 25, 2026 – 14:12

(Bloomberg) — Stocks and bonds rose while oil slid as traders trying to gauge the viability of US-Iran ceasefire talks sent global markets to a series of big swings.

S&P 500 futures climbed more than 1% before giving up some of the advance. Brent crude dropped below $100. The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.32%.

A 15-point peace proposal from the US fanned optimism among traders that President Donald Trump is serious about winding down the war that has upended energy markets around the world. Iran rejected a ceasefire and called US talks “illogical,” according to the nation’s semi-official news agency Fars, leaving some investors skeptical that tensions will ease soon.

“There’s a rebound in risk appetite this morning, which makes sense given the newsflow, but for us this is no time to buy the rally,” said Christophe Boucher, chief investment officer at ABN Amro Investment Solutions. “One can actually feel the algos reacting to the ‘peace’, ‘negotiation’ and ‘ceasefire’ keywords.”

In US pre-market trading, miners such as Newmont Corp. and Freeport-McMoRan Inc. were among the biggest gainers. Arm Holdings Plc jumped 12% on plans to generate about $15 billion annually within five years from chip sales.

Meanwhile, equity strategists have been boosting their outlook for US profits. Earnings in the S&P 500 Index are expected to rise 20% in the next 12 months, data compiled by Morgan Stanley show. Historically, the reading was higher only when the economy emerged out of recessions.

“This supports our stance that the probability remains low for this oil spike to end the business cycle,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief US equity strategist for Morgan Stanley.

Bonds also rallied in today’s session, with yields on two-year German notes sliding seven basis points to 2.59%. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde pushed back against expectations of an imminent response to higher energy prices, saying that the ECB could look through a limited, short-lived shock.

What Bloomberg’s Strategists Say:

“There should be a degree of skepticism around the commodity pullback, but it is also worth remembering that a return to pre-conflict optimism in European equities will be difficult if yields remain elevated.”

— Skylar Montgomery Koning, macro strategist. For the full analysis, click here.

Corporate News:

SpaceX aims to file a prospectus for an initial public offering as soon as this week, the Information reported, kicking off one of the year’s most-anticipated market debuts. Merck & Co. agreed to buy Terns Pharmaceuticals Inc. in a deal valuing the drugmaker at $6.7 billion, bolstering the multinational company’s pipeline ahead of a key cancer treatment’s patents expiring. Pop Mart International Group Ltd. shares tumbled nearly 22% after the company posted full-year revenue growth still largely reliant on sales of Labubu, disappointing investors counting on other franchises to sustain its success. SK Hynix Inc. seeks to list its American Depositary Receipts in what may be one of the biggest US debuts by a foreign company ever, part of the chipmaker’s bid to keep pace with artificial intelligence’s voracious demand for memory. Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures rose 0.9% as of 9:11 a.m. New York time Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.1% Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1% The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1.5% The MSCI World Index rose 0.4% Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1594 The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3395 The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 158.95 per dollar Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin rose 2.3% to $71,685.01 Ether rose 1.6% to $2,182.53 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.32% Germany’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 2.95% Britain’s 10-year yield declined 13 basis points to 4.83% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 5.1% to $87.68 a barrel Spot gold rose 1.9% to $4,562.68 an ounce –With assistance from Subrat Patnaik, James Hirai and Julien Ponthus.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.