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March 26, 2026 – 00:31

(Bloomberg) — Crude oil edged up and US equity-index futures slipped on Thursday as uncertainty around US-Iran ceasefire talks kept investors cautious amid shifting headlines.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices edged higher to trade around $91 a barrel on Thursday after falling over 2% in the previous session. Contracts for US stocks also edged lower after the S&P 500 gained 0.5% on Wednesday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.7%. A gauge of Asian shares was a touch weaker at the start.

Gold was steady, while a Bloomberg gauge of the dollar was little changed. Treasuries were slightly higher across the curve during the US session, with the US 10-year yield three basis points lower to 4.33%.

The moves signaled caution among traders as US efforts to end the conflict gained momentum, overshadowing reports that Iran rejected a truce and continued strikes. Despite mixed signals on negotiations, Washington has ordered thousands of troops to the region, raising concerns Donald Trump may be gearing up for the kind of risky ground invasion he once opposed.

“Markets are positioning for a conflict resolution, despite lingering strategic ambiguity,” said Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. “Ultimately, Iran’s response to the US de-escalation pivot will decide whether peak fear is behind us or still ahead.”

Trump has been pushing for talks with Iran in a bid to halt a conflict that’s approaching the four-week mark. The White House said the US has been in productive talks with Iran in the last three days and has compiled a plan stipulating the Islamic Republic dismantle its main nuclear facilities and use a reduced missile arsenal in self-defense only.

But Tehran is signaling little willingness to compromise. A move by the US to start indirect talks is illogical and not viable at this stage, semi-official Fars news agency reported.

Iran has its own conditions for a ceasefire, state-owned Press TV added, citing an unnamed senior security official. The nation wants guarantees the US and Israel won’t resume their attacks as well as reparations for damages and recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz.

Concerns over the conflict have rippled across Asia. South Korea has set up an emergency task force to prepare for adverse scenarios, Japan is reviewing its supply chain for petroleum-related products and the Philippines has declared a national emergency.

“There’s really no way to know at this point what the facts are regarding the state of negotiations, so expect more whipsaw action as things continue to progress,” said Bespoke Investment Group strategists. “While Iran still holds some cards, the chips are stacked heavily against them.”

Meanwhile, Asian memory and storage stocks may track declines in US peers on concerns over weaker demand after Google researchers highlighted a new compression technique for large language models and vector search engines.

Geopolitics is still in the driver’s seat, but the bigger story may be the stock market’s resilience, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.

“We haven’t seen a major drawdown, and that suggests retail investors are continuing to buy into weakness,” he said. “If tensions begin to ease, institutions may have to move quickly off the sidelines, and that could create a powerful rebound.”

Optimism over earnings may explain the S&P 500’s strength in the face of fighting in the Middle East.

Analysts estimate companies in the gauge will grow their profits by 11.9% in the three months through March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. That compares to a forecast of 10.9% before the war.

Corporate Highlights:

JetBlue Airways Corp. is considering the option of selling itself to a competitor, Semafor reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Meta Platforms Inc. is cutting several hundred jobs as part of a restructuring effort that’s impacting several teams at the company, including sales, recruiting and the Reality Labs hardware division. Arm Holdings Plc, which made its name licensing technology to semiconductor makers, said it will sell its own chips for the first time — a move forecast to generate about $15 billion annually within five years. Merck & Co. agreed to buy Terns Pharmaceuticals Inc. for $6.7 billion, giving the multinational company access to a promising new leukemia treatment as it faces the patent expiration of its bestselling cancer drug. Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% as of 8:29 a.m. Tokyo time Hang Seng futures fell 0.4% Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was little changed Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1561 The Japanese yen was little changed at 159.38 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.9033 per dollar The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6943 Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin rose 0.5% to $71,337.79 Ether rose 0.3% to $2,172.1 Bonds

Australia’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.95% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.8% to $91.04 a barrel Spot gold was little changed This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

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