A dramatic rise in the number of satellites in orbit is increasing the amount of space debris, posing a critical threat to the capabilities of America’s national space systems.
During his keynote address to the Space Policy, Science, and Technology Symposium hosted by the Purdue University Policy Research Institute, Maj. Gen. Chris Povak, deputy director of the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), warned of the ongoing risks of building space debris.
Povak giving his keynote address to the Space Policy, Science, and Technology Symposium
“The future gets more complex, not less. More satellites, more debris, more competition,” he said.
“Managing these challenges simultaneously continues to be priority number one for this community, to ensure that we continue to fulfil our mission to the American people.”
Some space debris is so small it can’t be tracked
With space becoming increasingly congested over the past two decades, Povak explained, there are hundreds of thousands of objects in orbit – including many that are less than 10 centimetres in diameter and too small to track reliably – that could damage or even destroy a satellite.
According to the U.S. Space Force, more than 80 nations operate satellites in space – a number that has doubled in the past 20 years, enabled by access to advanced technologies, more efficient commercial production methods, and dramatically lower launch costs.
The number of satellites in orbit has grown tenfold over the past decade – from about 1,400 satellites in orbit in 2016 to more than 14,000 today. Tens of thousands of satellites are expected to be in orbit in the coming years.
Over 48,000 trackable objects in orbit
The U.S. Space Force’s Combat Forces Command reports there are currently about 48,000 trackable objects, meaning debris that is 10 centimetres or larger in low-earth orbit and one meter or larger in geostationary orbit, where some of our nation’s most strategically significant spacecraft reside.
Complicating the challenge is the increase in “debris-creating events.”
For example, in 2007, a Chinese anti-satellite test generated more than 3,000 pieces of trackable debris; a 2021 Russian anti-satellite test produced 1,500 pieces of trackable debris.
A commitment to responsible and safe space operations
Given the magnitude of the problem, detecting and avoiding space debris is a critical focus area for the NRO.
Povak said: “Our commitment to responsible space operations is fundamental to our mission assurance and our role as stewards of the space environment.”
The NRO will work with commercial partners to harden satellite construction, enhance autonomy and manoeuvrability, and innovate end-of-life processes for spacecraft.
How the NRO is helping this commitment
The NRO is also applying its decades-long legacy of innovation to strengthening the nation’s space-domain awareness and debris detection.
It partnered with the Space Force to develop SILENTBARKER – multiple space vehicles in geostationary orbit that offer a “neighbourhood watch” capability. It is also developing a quantum magnetometer sensor testbed to support space-debris detection and precision navigation – enabling assets to assess risks and avoid collisions with space debris.
The organisation also participates in national and international dialogues on space sustainability and complies with orbital debris mitigation standards set by the Department of War, the National Security Council, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and NASA – ensuring the safety of every system from launch through operations to ultimate disposal.
Povak concluded: “While the challenge of a congested space isn’t going away anytime soon, there are steps that spacefaring nations and organisations can do today to help mitigate the growing threat and domain, even as this community works to develop even more effective solutions for the future.”