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If you are wondering whether AeroVironment’s current share price lines up with its underlying value, this breakdown will walk through what the numbers are actually saying.
The stock last closed at US$184.36, with a 16.4% decline over 30 days and a 28.0% decline year to date, set against a 65.1% return over the past year and 77.6% over three years.
Recent coverage has focused on AeroVironment’s role in defense technology and unmanned systems, as investors weigh how that positioning could affect long term demand. Headlines have also highlighted the broader interest in aerospace and defense names, which can influence sentiment around the stock.
Right now, AeroVironment has a valuation score of 1 out of 6. The rest of this article will walk through what different valuation methods say about that number, and will finish with a way to think about value that goes beyond the usual models.
AeroVironment scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a business could be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to a present value using a required rate of return.
For AeroVironment, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of about $235.1 million. Analyst inputs and extrapolations then project free cash flow turning positive and reaching $216.2 million in 2028 and $510.5 million in 2035, all in $ and on a company wide basis rather than per share.
Combining ten years of projected free cash flows with a terminal value gives an estimated intrinsic value of about $158.22 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $184.36, the DCF output suggests AeroVironment trades at roughly a 16.5% premium to this intrinsic value estimate, which screens as overvalued on this model.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests AeroVironment may be overvalued by 16.5%. Discover 59 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
AVAV Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026
For companies where earnings can be volatile or negative, the P/S ratio is often a useful way to think about value because it compares the share price to the revenue the business is already generating.
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Growth expectations and risk still matter here, as a higher P/S ratio is usually associated with stronger expected growth or lower perceived risk, while a lower P/S tends to reflect more cautious expectations or higher uncertainty.
AeroVironment currently trades on a P/S of 5.77x. That sits above the Aerospace & Defense industry average P/S of 4.70x, but below the peer group average of 7.79x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework estimates a P/S of 3.34x for AeroVironment, based on factors such as its earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and stock specific risks.
This Fair Ratio is designed to be more tailored than a simple comparison against industry or peers, because it adjusts for the company’s own growth outlook, risk characteristics and profitability rather than assuming all Aerospace & Defense names should trade at similar levels.
Set against this Fair Ratio of 3.34x, AeroVironment’s current P/S of 5.77x screens as higher than what the model suggests as a reasonable level.
Result: OVERVALUED
NasdaqGS:AVAV P/S Ratio as at Apr 2026
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Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives take AeroVironment beyond static ratios by letting you link a clear story about the business to a financial forecast and a Fair Value, then compare that to today’s price to decide whether you see the stock as attractive or expensive.
On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are simple to use. They let you set your own assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins, so the numbers align with how you think AeroVironment’s drone, counter drone and BlueHalo businesses could play out.
Those assumptions roll into a Fair Value that updates automatically when new information such as news, contracts or earnings is added to the platform. This keeps your view tied to the latest data rather than a static model.
For AeroVironment, one Narrative on the optimistic end assumes a Fair Value of US$450.00, while a more cautious Narrative anchors at US$235.00. This shows how two investors can look at the same company, apply different stories and assumptions, and reach very different but clearly quantified conclusions about what the shares are worth.
Do you think there’s more to the story for AeroVironment? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
NasdaqGS:AVAV 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include AVAV.
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