WTI crude oil has gone on a wild ride in early April 2026, suddenly surging past $112 per barrel after an absolutely…
Written by:
Arslan Butt
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Saturday, April 4, 2026
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3 min read
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Last updated: Saturday, April 4, 2026
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Quick overview
WTI crude oil prices surged past $112 per barrel in early April 2026 due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.President Trump’s address on the crisis heightened fears of prolonged supply disruptions, contributing to the price spike.WTI futures have gained over 60% year-to-date, marking one of the most volatile periods in crude markets.Analysts warn that if disruptions continue, prices could remain high throughout 2026, with potential spikes reaching $150.
WTI crude oil has gone on a wild ride in early April 2026, suddenly surging past $112 per barrel after an absolutely massive one-day gain of more than 11% on April 2 – a full on oil price explosion. The reason behind this jolt is easily summed up – escalating geopolitical fears over the Strait of Hormuz, a major pinch point which funnels over 20% of the world’s oil supply.
Why did oil prices suddenly shoot past $112?
Recent events in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with a prime-time address from President Trump that made it clear there’d be no quick fix to the crisis, made traders lose all hope of a rapid de-escalation.
WTI May 2026 futures blasted off from around $100 to over $112 in just one day, with some reports showing the price even touching $114 at one point during that volatile session.
Year-to-date gains for WTI have now topped 60% in some key stretches, which makes this one of the most volatile periods for crude markets we can remember.
Geopolitical Shockwaves: Iran Conflict and Strait of Hormuz Closure
The driving force behind this oil price rally is the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s actions in response to US strikes have severely limited or even fully closed this critical waterway, which has already had a big hit on the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf.
In his April 1 address, President Trump called on other nations to help keep the strait secure & hinted at more aggressive steps – which sent oil futures shooting higher as traders bet on weeks or even longer of supply disruptions.
Earlier, when there were hints of possible quicker de-escalation, prices did in fact spike, but now it’s all about supply fears. Real disruptions have sent WTI well clear of that $70-$80 range we saw earlier in 2026. Analysts are warning that a prolonged closure could be the biggest supply shock in the history of the oil market.
How the March 2026 US Jobs Report Fits Into the Oil Picture
On April 3, the March 2026 nonfarm payrolls report showed a nice gain of 178,000 jobs, beating expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. Strong labor data normally supports a stronger US dollar and higher interest rates – neither of which are good for oil prices.
But in this case, the impact on WTI was pretty soft due to the Good Friday holiday and thin trading volumes. The bigger story is still the chaos in the Strait of Hormuz – and that’s what’s keeping oil prices high. Mixed wage growth provided a bit of balance, but right now markets are more focused on supply shortages than slower economic growth.
Technical Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Breaks Up Through a Key Resistance Zone
From a technical angle, WTI crude oil has now firmly broken above that $106 resistance zone, which is a big sign it’s in a strong uptrend. The price remains comfortably above its ascending trendline and its major moving averages (50-period near $103, 200-period near $95) which are now acting as a kind of dynamic safety net.
USOIL Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
Key technical levels to watch:
Upside targets: $119, with a possible extension to $126 if momentum keeps going.
Support on a pullback: $106 – then the $98-$100 zone.
Momentum indicator: The RSI is near 75 – which suggests buying is going full steam ahead, but we might see some short-term pauses if it gets too overbought.
As long as WTI stays above $106, the path of least resistance is definitely higher.
Three Critical Factors to Watch in the Coming Days
These are the main things that could send oil prices flying in the coming days:
Fresh diplomatic signals, any ceasefire progress, or developments that could get the Strait of Hormuz flowing again
The upcoming crude inventory reports and any announcements on Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases
Broader macro updates, including any commentary from the Federal Reserve on rates and the economy
Short-Term Bulls vs Longer-Term Caution for Oil Prices in 2026
The short term outlook is very bullish.
Prediction markets like Polymarket show high odds of WTI reaching $120 or higher before the end of April 2026, because the geopolitical premium is staying high on every new escalation headline.
The longer term picture is a lot more uncertain.
If disruptions drag on, prices could stay high in the $90-$110+ range for most of 2026. But once flows get back to normal, many analysts (including those at J.P. Morgan) expect a return towards $60 per barrel as potential surpluses pop up and demand fundamentals start to soften. J.P. Morgan has also warned that we could see near-term spikes to $120-$130, or even $150+ if the Hormuz disruption keeps going into mid-May.
The ongoing battle between immediate supply shocks and market rebalancing will be what defines oil prices for the rest of 2026.
Arslan Butt
Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.
His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.
His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.