A prolonged Iran conflict isn’t just a geopolitical crisis – it’s a direct economic shock to Australian households, industries, and states. Our economists map the full cascade: from Strait of Hormuz closures to your fuel bill, mortgage stress, and local job market.

Key Takeaways:
– Global Recession Mechanics – Understand exactly how a sustained Iran war triggers a global growth collapse – and the inflation surge that comes with it.
– Australia’s Exposure Map – Why Australia cannot escape – the domestic capacity constraints that make us uniquely vulnerable to external price shocks.
– Fuel & Shipping Price Paths – See how Strait of Hormuz disruption flows through energy and shipping costs directly into Australian consumer prices.
– Household Financial Stress – How surging inflation and rising unemployment hit household spending – and which demographics face the sharpest squeeze.
– Industry-by-Industry Risk – Fuel-reliant sectors face first-order shocks. We rank industries by exposure so you can identify where risk is most acute.
– State & Regional Impacts – Not all states are equal. Industry concentration drives divergent regional outcomes – we map which states and households are hit hardest.

This webinar is being held on our new platform, ON24. If you do not receive your confirmation email, please check your junk and spam folders.

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Harry Murphy Cruise is the Head of Economic Research and Global Trade at Oxford Economics Australia. He leads the Australian Macroeconomic Service and global trade initiatives, including TradePrism. Harry frequently provides insights to major media outlets, including CNBC, BBC, Reuters, and the Wall Street Journal. His research primarily focuses on global trade and investment flows, with particular interest in the challenges and opportunities of economic decoupling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Harry holds a master\u2019s degree in international and development economics from the Australian National University and a bachelor\u2019s degree in arts and commerce from Monash University. He is a PhD candidate at ANU, exploring the role of China\u2019s diverse households and firms in the country\u2019s economic transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Harry was the Head of China and Australia Economics at Moody’s Analytics. He was previously responsible for Australian state and territory analysis at Deloitte Access Economics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Speakers

Harry Murphy Cruise

Harry Murphy Cruise

Harry Murphy Cruise is the Head of Economic Research and Global Trade at Oxford Economics Australia. He leads the Australian Macroeconomic Service and global trade initiatives, including TradePrism. Harry frequently provides insights to major media outlets, including CNBC, BBC, Reuters, and the Wall Street Journal. His research primarily focuses on global trade and investment flows, with particular interest in the challenges and opportunities of economic decoupling.

Harry holds a master’s degree in international and development economics from the Australian National University and a bachelor’s degree in arts and commerce from Monash University. He is a PhD candidate at ANU, exploring the role of China’s diverse households and firms in the country’s economic transition.

Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Harry was the Head of China and Australia Economics at Moody’s Analytics. He was previously responsible for Australian state and territory analysis at Deloitte Access Economics.

Head of Economic Research and Global Trade