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April 9, 2026 – 13:45

(Bloomberg) — Stocks dropped and oil advanced as traders watched to see if the US-Iran ceasefire holds, with both sides accusing the other of breaches.

US equity futures fell 0.4%. Brent crude jumped back to $98 a barrel on signs the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed. The dollar ticked higher and Treasuries were steady. Emerging-market stocks slid almost 1%.

Markets are giving up some of the big moves seen Wednesday when optimism around the deal for a two-week pause in fighting spurred a relief rally. Despite the escalating rhetoric, the ceasefire was largely holding on Thursday, with a decline in attacks across Arab states in the Persian Gulf.

“There’s a fair amount of scepticism in the market about the ceasefire and the upcoming negotiations,” said Raphael Thuin, head of capital markets strategies at Paris-based Tikehau Capital. “The big question is what state the global economy will be in after the crisis.”

US President Donald Trump pledged to keep US troops in the Persian Gulf ahead of talks with Iran. The first round of direct negotiations is scheduled for Saturday morning in Islamabad.

Brent is set to average more than $100 a barrel right through 2026 if the strait remains closed for another month, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts wrote in a note.

US 10-year Treasury yields were little changed at 4.29%, while equivalent UK yields rose six basis points after tumbling almost 20 basis points on Wednesday. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index fell 0.7%.

As earnings season kicks off next week, expectations will need to be tempered due to the inflationary fallout from the war, BlackRock Inc.’s Helen Jewell said.

“If you look at earnings forecasts at the moment for the year, they’re still well into double digits — 15, 16, 17, 18%,” said Jewell, who is international chief investment officer for fundamental equities at the world’s largest asset manager. “There’s a lot of headroom for the earnings to come down a little bit.”

What Bloomberg’s Strategists Say:

“After yesterday’s understandable enthusiasm around a ceasefire, it is difficult to identify a catalyst for another leg higher in bonds and equities today, and the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the less confidence there will be in the rally that has already occurred.”

— Skylar Montgomery Koning, macro strategist. For the full analysis, click here.

Later on Thursday, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation will offer a snapshot of pre-war price pressures.

Economists see the so-called core personal consumption expenditures — PCE — price index, which excludes food and energy, having risen by 0.4% for a third month in February, suggesting progress toward tamer inflation was stalling even before the conflict.

Elsewhere, Meta Platforms Inc. was outperforming its fellow tech giants in premarket trading. Analysts are positive after the social media giant debuted its highly anticipated artificial intelligence model.

Corporate Highlights:

Seven & i Holdings Co. will delay a public listing of its US convenience-store business planned for later this year, saying it needs more time to turn the business around while navigating uncertain market conditions. OpenAI is pausing its Stargate infrastructure project in the UK, citing the high cost of energy and regulatory environment. Pacific Investment Management Co. is looking to sell a portion of the $14 billion of debt financing it’s providing for a massive Oracle Corp. data center in Michigan, according to people with knowledge of the matter. La Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec and Prologis Inc. have set up a €1 billion ($1.2 billion) joint venture to acquire and run European logistics assets as geopolitical uncertainty continues to reshape supply chains. Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% as of 7:33 a.m. New York time Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.3% Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.7% The MSCI World Index fell 0.2% Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1683 The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3416 The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 158.94 per dollar Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $71,127.65 Ether fell 1.3% to $2,180.17 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.28% Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.98% Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.77% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude rose 5.4% to $99.52 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,745.35 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Ruth Carson, Sangmi Cha, Rong Wei Neo and Anand Krishnamoorthy.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.