Iraq is racing against missing another constitutional deadline to form a government, as the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran adds strain to a long-running political deadlock in Baghdad.
Iraq held parliamentary elections on November 11 for its 329-seat legislature but missed its first constitutional deadline by not naming a president within 30 days.
On April 11, Nizar Amidi was elected president and now has 15 days from that date to formally task the nominee of the largest parliamentary bloc with forming a new government — and ultimately selecting a prime minister.
The fight over who becomes prime minister — Iraq’s most powerful post — is no longer just an internal dispute, said Issam al-Faili, an Iraqi political analyst and university professor. He said the US-Iran conflict has made it harder for lawmakers to agree on a candidate.
“Iran wants the next prime minister to support its interests, while the Trump administration is pushing for a candidate who will confront Iran-backed militias and move toward disarming them,” al-Faili said. The United States views the militias “as a threat to its regional interests,” he added.
In practice, al-Faili said, no prime minister is likely to emerge without at least tacit acceptance from Iran.
The US has previously undercut potential candidates, and President Donald Trump has warned that that the US would cut support for Iraq if one former prime minister returned to power.
Iran can signal its preferences through deep networks in Iraq, al-Faili said, including allied political movements such as Islamic Dawa and armed factions within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella group of mostly Shiite militias.
Al-Faili said that even if a prime minister is chosen, he is likely to face US pressure to disarm Iranian-backed factions.