Trinidad and Tobago’s economic growth showed signs of moderation in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by weakening activity in the non-energy sector, the Central Bank said in its Annual Economic Survey published yesterday.

According to the Central Bank, the latest official data from the Central Statistical Office (CSO) showed that real GDP increased by 0.2% over the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a 2.2% expansion in energy sector output that offset a 0.6% decline in non-energy sector production.

“Energy sector buoyancy largely reflected a base effect, given maintenance activity by key upstream producers in the first half of 2024. Added impetus to growth accrued from the start-up of production at two new natural gas fields in the second quarter of 2025,” it stated.

The Central Bank stated that unemployment remained relatively low, averaging 4.5% over the first three quarters of 2025. “Based on the official data, this signalled stabilised labour market conditions when compared with the unemployment rate of 4.8% during the same period of 2024. An uptick occurred in the number of persons with jobs alongside a more than proportionate decline in the number of persons without jobs,” it stated.

“However, the labour force fell while the participation rate remained relatively unchanged at 54.7%. Job gains were notably observed in the Wholesale and Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels, and Manufacturing sectors,” it stated.

The Central Banks stated that a review of broader labour market indicators presents a more mixed perspective.

“There was a reduction in the number of persons retrenched in 2025, while a decline in the number of job advertisements published in the print media points to eased hiring activity,” it stated.

The Central Bank stated that price pressures were generally contained in 2025 as headline inflation remained low, increasing to 1% from 0.5% in 2024.

“This was underpinned by an increase in both food (3% in 2025 compared to 1.5% in 2024) and core inflation (0.5% in 2025 compared to 0.2% in 2024),” it stated.

The Central Bank said higher energy receipts outpaced the increase in government spending in the fiscal year ended September 2025, resulting in a significantly smaller overall deficit than budgeted.

“The preliminary outturn from the Ministry of Finance shows that the Central Government accounts recorded an overall deficit of $8.1 billion in FY2024/25. This compares with a fiscal deficit of $9.1 billion recorded in the previous fiscal year (FY2023/24) and the mid-year revised budget deficit of $9.7 billion for FY2024/25,” it stated.

“Central Government revenue climbed to $49.1 billion driven mainly by stronger energy receipts while expenditure increased moderately to $57.2 billion owing to higher outlays in transfers and subsidies and goods and services,” the Central bank stated.

The Central Bank stated that domestic and external borrowings, along with withdrawals from the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund (HSF) were used to finance the fiscal deficit.

“Meanwhile, at the end of September 2025, adjusted General Government debt outstanding (which excludes debt issued for sterilisation purposes) reached $146.9 billion, $6.2 billion more than in September 2024,” it stated.

“The Central Bank allowed treasury bills and notes to mature in the financial system and kept the repo rate unchanged at 3.5% during 2025 to support favourable funding conditions to aid domestic economic activity. Continued Government borrowing activity (both the size and timing) led to tighter market liquidity conditions, which the Bank addressed by allowing open market operation treasury securities to mature to keep ample liquidity in the banking system,” the Central bank stated.

According to the Central Bank after declining to $3.5 billion in October 2025, commercial banks’ excess reserves at the Central Bank increased to $4.2 billion by end-December 2025.

The Central Bank stated that Trinidad and Tobago’s external accounts recorded a deficit of US$908.2 million in the first nine months of 2025.