U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Monday as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, during which Fed chair Jerome Powell is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold. 

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note — the key benchmark for U.S. government borrowing — was largely flat at 4.314%.

The 2-year Treasury note yield, which more closely tracks short-term Federal Reserve interest rate policy, was over 1 basis point higher at 3.786%. The longer-dated 30-year Treasury bond yield was broadly flat. 

One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.

The policy decision on Wednesday could mark Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair before Kevin Warsh is expected to take over in May. The Department of Justice decided to drop its criminal probe into Powell on Friday, causing Sen. Thom Tillis to end his block of Warsh’s confirmation.

In terms of the monetary policy outlook, investors are unlikely to get anything “particularly revelatory,” wrote Dutch bank ING in a note.

“The minutes from the last decision suggested that the ‘vast majority’ of the FOMC membership saw employment risks as skewed to the downside, while progress on inflation was likely to be slower because of the economic headwinds being generated by developments in the Middle East,” the analysts said. 

“This is likely to remain the way the committee assesses the situation with little prospect of any immediate change in policy signaled.”

The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) are also due to hold pivotal meetings as the war upends inflation and growth expectations.

The ECB and BOE both publish their latest monetary policy decisions on Thursday, with economists expecting the central banks to stand pat on their benchmark interest rates at their respective meetings this month, but will leave the door open to hikes later this year.

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