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April 30, 2026 – 07:49

(Bloomberg) — Oil surged to the highest level in almost four years amid growing pessimism about efforts to end the Middle East conflict. Stocks swung to losses after earlier getting a boost from megacap tech earnings.

Brent crude climbed as much as 7.1% to $126.41 a barrel, before paring gains to trade around $125, and is headed for a ninth straight day of gains. Oil has surged more than 100% this year, and extended its advance on Thursday after Axios reported that President Donald Trump was slated to receive a briefing on new plans for potential military action in Iran.

Futures contracts for the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%, erasing an advance of as much as 1.1% that came after robust earnings from megacap companies such as Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. MSCI’s Asia Pacific share index fell 1.5% and European equities were primed to drop 1% at the open.

Bonds slid as the surge in oil and a hawkish hold by the Federal Reserve sapped demand for fixed-income assets. Treasury 10-year futures dropped for a fourth day, while cash 10-year yields held near the highest since July. Yields on Japan’s 10-year notes rose to the highest since 1997. Bloomberg’s gauge of the dollar climbed for a third day.

From surging oil prices driven by the Iran war to a divided Fed keeping rates on hold and impressive megacap tech earnings, traders are grappling with a barrage of whipsawing headlines. The backdrop is testing a global equity rally that has erased war-related losses and pushed US markets to new highs, driven by strong tech results.

“A combo of higher oil prices during our time zone, news of US considering military options in Iran, plus Europe waking up to the news is denting sentiment across markets,” said Rodrigo Catril, a strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney.

There’s more for traders to parse Thursday, with the European Central Bank and the Bank of England set to announce policy decisions, followed by US economic data. Both are expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

What Bloomberg Strategists Say…

The cross-asset picture is starting to resemble that seen in March, where stocks and bonds are sliding in unison, while oil and the US dollar shift higher. The action first started to deteriorate after an earlier Axios report that President Trump will consider re-escalating the Middle East conflict.

— Mark Cranfield, MLIV. For full analysis, click here.

Apple Inc. is the marquee earnings event on Thursday after a frenzied Wednesday offered a glimpse at how some of the world’s biggest tech companies are doing in artificial intelligence.

Alphabet rose 7% in post-market trading, while Meta Platforms Inc. dropped 7%. Amazon.com Inc. shares climbed 2.7%, while Microsoft Corp. edged up 0.3%.

In Asia, the AI-fueled rally is masking signs of strain, with gains in tech names overshadowing the impact of the US-Iran war on the broader market. The Kospi Index in South Korea was set for its best month since 1998 and the Taiex in Taiwan the best since 2001.

“AI is giving markets a structural growth story, but oil is turning geopolitics into a structural inflation risk,” said Charu Chanana, the chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. “With positioning still crowded in parts of tech, the market can no longer rely on earnings strength alone.”

Elsewhere, the yen was steady on Thursday after the currency slid beyond 160 per dollar to its weakest level this year, fueling risk that Japanese officials may step into the market to offer support.

Gold was a touch weaker at about $4,550 an ounce, while Bitcoin edged lower to about $75,450.

The Fed left rates unchanged Wednesday, but revealed a deepening division over the outlook for policy. Traders have all but abandoned wagers on a rate cut this year and began pricing in the chances of a hike in 2027.

Jerome Powell’s press conference was his last at the helm of the central bank after the Justice Department dropped a controversial criminal investigation into the Fed, clearing the way for the Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next chair. Powell said he’ll remain at the central bank as a governor.

The latest gathering revealed a deepening division. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack alongside Minneapolis’ Neel Kashkari and Dallas’ Lorie Logan “supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.” Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a cut.

“The three dissents on the statement’s language point to a marginally more hawkish tilt, as some officials prepare for the possibility that inflation remains higher for longer,” said Angelo Kourkafas at Edward Jones. “We expect the Fed to remain firmly on hold in the months ahead.”

Corporate News:

Alphabet Inc.’s Google is seeing a clear payoff from its AI spending, while Meta Platforms Inc. is lagging behind. Anthropic PBC began weighing a fresh funding round that would value the AI developer at more than $900 billion, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially leapfrogging its longtime rival OpenAI as the world’s most valuable AI startup. SoftBank Group Corp. plans to establish and float a standalone AI robotics and data center company called Roze in the US, the Financial Times reported. Samsung Electronics Co.’s semiconductor arm brought in historic profit over the March quarter, beating expectations with a 48-fold jump as AI data center orders delivered hefty margins. European earnings: ING Groep NV beat estimates; Credit Agricole SA’s corporate and investment bank struggled; BASF SE maintained its outlook; Societe Generale SA beat estimates for profit; Standard Chartered Plc posted record first-quarter earnings; BNP Paribas SA beat analyst estimates for profit. Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% as of 6:48 a.m. London time Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2% Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.5% The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 1.3% Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1661 The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 160.58 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.8451 per dollar The British pound was little changed at $1.3463 Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin was little changed at $75,640.93 Ether rose 0.2% to $2,243.88 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.43% Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 3.11% Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 5.07% Commodities

Brent crude rose 4.5% to $123.39 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,567.13 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Ruth Carson, Abhishek Vishnoi, Alice French and Matthew Burgess.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.