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Yara International (OB:YAR) stock has drawn attention after recent share price moves, with a 1.7% decline over the past month contrasting with a 16% gain over the past 3 months and 28.6% year to date.
See our latest analysis for Yara International.
At a share price of NOK528.0, Yara International has recently given back some short term gains, yet the 90 day share price return of 16.0% and 1 year total shareholder return of 57.1% suggest momentum has been building over time.
If this kind of move has you thinking about what else is out there, it could be a good moment to scan the market using the 100 top founder-led companies
With Yara International trading around NOK528.0, roughly in line with analyst targets yet showing a 53.2% intrinsic discount, the key question is whether the stock still offers value or whether the market is already pricing in future growth.
Most Popular Narrative: 37% Overvalued
With Yara International last closing at NOK528 and the most followed narrative pointing to a fair value of NOK386 using a 7.39% discount rate, the current price sits well above that estimate and puts the focus firmly on the assumptions behind the clean ammonia and fertilizer story.
The market appears to be pricing in sustained strong demand for value-added and specialty fertilizers, where Yara is a leader, based on long-term increases in agricultural productivity needs and adoption of climate-smart farming. Yet current order books and commentary indicate only flat to modest growth in volumes and margins for these products. If the shift to precision agriculture or specialty products stalls, future revenue and net margin expansion could disappoint.
Want to understand why a business with flat revenue expectations and softer margins could still justify a richer future earnings multiple, and how that squares with a lower fair value than the current NOK528 share price? The narrative leans heavily on specific forecasts for earnings, revenue mix and required return hurdles that paint a very different picture from the recent share price move. However, the exact trade offs between growth, margins and valuation are only clear when you see the full set of assumptions laid out together.
Result: Fair Value of NOK386 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, there are still a few swing factors to watch, including policy support for low carbon ammonia projects and any further tightening of European fertilizer import duties.
Find out about the key risks to this Yara International narrative.
Another View: Market Pricing Versus Ratios
That 37% overvaluation narrative sits awkwardly beside Yara International’s current P/E of 10.4x, which is well below both the European Chemicals industry at 18.2x and the peer average at 22.4x, and even the 14.2x fair ratio that the market could move towards over time.
If the stock were to trade closer to that fair ratio, the re rating would be meaningful. However, if the earnings outlook weakens further, even 10.4x might prove demanding. Which risk do you think matters more right now: price or profits?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
OB:YAR P/E Ratio as at May 2026 Next Steps
With sentiment clearly split in this article, now is the moment to look through the figures yourself and decide where you stand on Yara International. To balance the potential upside with the concerns flagged by our work, take a closer look at the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include YAR.OL.
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